Anti-Terrorist Force Protection: Harbor Tactical 3D Simulations for Risk, Consequence Assessment

2. Anti-Terrorist Force Protection:Harbor Tactical 3D Simulations for Risk, Consequence Assessment Don Brutzman International Maritime Protection Symposium 13 December 2005

3. Outline • Motivation • Business model, access considerations • Agent-based tactics modeling • Applications • Cluster computations to support analyst • X3D Graphics modeling • Recommendations

4. Motivation • Defend against small-boat attack • Evolution of studies on USS COLE attack • Assess risk, vulnerabilities, consequences, alternatives • Analysis to support 3 classes of customers • Harbor defense funding priorities • Harbor operations, actual & projected • Ships entering port, joining defenders

5. AT/FP technical approach • Model tactical layout of harbor, facilities • Agent-based situated tactics for each player • 3D visualization • Open standards and open source • NPS agent toolkit: discrete-event Simkit/Viskit • Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics • Distributed Interactive Simulation Protocol • Scalable, repeatable methodology • Suitable for data-driven production, repetition

6. Business model • Too many proprietary toolsets • High cost, not sustainable, not interoperable • Over time, essential data lost to further use • Daylight encourages good behavior • Business-friendly open-source licensing • Repeatable capabilities extendable over Web • Nothing succeeds like success • Use proven best practices, everyone wins

7. Consortia partnerships essential • Stable, evolving Web-based standards • Also need best practices • Capable partners, industry and individual • Web3D Consortium • Real-time 3D communications using X3D • http://www.web3D.org • World Wide Consortium for the Grid (W2COG) • http://www.w2cog.org

8. Access considerations • Hardest technical challenges are science and interoperation, not classification rules • F=MA, E=IR, et cetera, writ large & connected • XML used for all data • Validatable, with self-describing metadata • Build unclassified versions, preferably using public well-documented resources • Modify data (not code) for classified use

9. Our approach • Demonstrate military value of new technology • Collaborate, implement, evaluate, report, repeat Key Technologies • Extensible Markup Language (XML) • Validatable data, binary compression • Web Services for message exchange • Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics • ISO-approved interactive visualization

10. XML is for structuring data XML looks a bit like HTML XML is text, but isn't meant to be read XML is verbose by design XML is a family of technologies XML is new, but not that new XML leads HTML to XHTML XML is modular XML is basis for RDF and the Semantic Web XML is license-free, platform-independent and well-supported Extensible Markup Language XML in 10 Points http://www.w3.org/XML/1999/XML-in-10-points 350+ member companies & institutions in World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) already understand the business case

11. Potential problem: XML size, bandwidth • Replacing data “stovepipes” with XML might be difficult since most tactical streams are highly compressed • Tactical showstopper for GIG architectures • Common problem in many domains • Candidate binary-XML solutions exist • NPS XSBC, Sun’s Fast Infoset, others • Continuing W3C working group effort provides metrics, use cases and process, working to produce: • Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) standard effort underway, where “efficient” = smaller + faster   • http://www.w3.org/XML/Binary

12. XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC) • XML encoding for validation benefits • XML schema holds adequate information • Tokenization of elements, attributes • Strong data typing of value payloads • Lossless • More efficient than compressed numeric text

13. 4.2 MB 42.9 MB 85.6 MB 29.8 MB 3.5 MB smallest size, parsing speedup 4-7x !! typical compression originals XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC) Conclusion: XSBC size, speed already better than gzip!

14. Extensible Modeling & Simulation Framework • XMSF is Web services for all manner of M&S • A composable set of standards, profiles, and recommended practices for web-based M&S • Foundational precepts: Internet network technologies, Extensible Markup Language (XML)-based languages, and service-oriented architectures for simple messaging • Enable a new generation of distributed M&S applications to emerge, develop, interoperate with tactical systems • Many easily repeatable exemplars using Web Services • http://www.MovesInstitute.org/xmsf

15. Simkit, Viskit, Diskit Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Methodology, Open-Source Implementation

16. Visual tool for building, analyzing Simkit models Well-understood methodology for Discrete Event Simulation (DES) Professional quality Unlocks years of NPS student-research effort with reduced programming Digitizing NPS courses for continued analyst use Viskit tool for Simkit

17. Simkit technical approach • Well-tested Java class libraries • DES event queue runs quickly or in real time • Event graphs define classes of interest • Assembly instantiates entities, collects statistics • Visual model • Logical, inspectable definition of relationships • Saved as validated XML • Autogenerates Java source code • Analysts get quality code (without being gurus)

18. Attacker event graph 1

19. Attacker event graph 2

20. Visual model saved as XML

21. XML model version converted to Java source, when needed by client or cluster

22. Code generation from XML and corresponding Java compilation are immediate

23. Viskit tactical scenarios • Diverse real-world locations and military players • Friendly, neutral and attacker entities • 2D tactical layout with 3D visualization • Networked DIS for X3D playback • Multiple scenarios under development • Indian Island refueling pier – “hello world” • ABOT oil terminal, Bremerton waterfront • Warfighter understandability is essential

24. Defender event graph

25. Neutral shipping event graph

26. Assembly connects event graphs

27. Tactical supercomputing and linux cluster support for analysts

28. Trends Commodity processors Inexpensive networking Free, off-the-shelf, open-source software Cheap storage Internet web standards Leading to Cluster Supercomputers Inexpensive, deployable Scalable computing resource (just add PC boxes) Shared via web standards or standalone Tactical supercomputing

29. Tactical supercomputing • Linux clusters can create new resources • 5 off-the-shelf new PC boxes + disk storage • $10K = 10 processors = 10 Gigaflop • Refrigerator-rack footprint easily fits shipboard • Industry can provide even higher capabilities • Exploring intermediate-level resources for previously supercomputer-level problems • Consistent access via grid/web services • Applied: Viskit Design of Experiments

32. Cluster statisics via web page

33. So what is a cluster good for? • First test and view basic tactical scenarios, then • Conduct massive replications for statistics • Analyst Design of Experiments (DOE) panel • Latin Hypercube scheme varies design points • Simulation “experiments” are repeatable due to pseudo-random number generator distributions • But wait, there’s more… • Replay “outliers” to assess vulnerability, learn exactly why certain hostile scenarios succeeded

34. X3D Graphics modeling ISO-standard 3D graphics interchange for the Web

36. Emerging Application Suite • SavageStudio authoring for creating scenarios • Builds both X3D scenes and Viskit assemblies • Viskit discrete-event simulation tool • Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) protocol for real-time operation • Cluster control • X3D visualization of scenario progress • using open-source Xj3D browser • Analytic assessment report generator

37. ABOT oil terminal Scenario snapshots

45. Bremerton harbor Scenario snapshots