1 / 37

Industrial countries

The External Environment for Developing Countries June 2009 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. Industrial countries. Largest recipients of TARP funds. Source: U.S. Treasury. USA.

campbellj
Download Presentation

Industrial countries

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesJune 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. Industrial countries

  3. Largest recipients of TARP funds Source: U.S. Treasury

  4. USA

  5. Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial reboundU.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

  6. Core inflation falling Japanese consumer prices, year-over-year percent change Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  7. ECB interest rate and InflationEurozone consumer prices, year-over-year percent change ECB Interest rate Headline inflation Core inflation Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  8. Japanese exports to ChinaIn Billion Yen Exports to China (RHS) Total exports, excluding China (lhs) Source: Thomson/Datastream

  9. Unemployment close to 2003 LevelPercentage of labor force Unemployment rate Source: Thomson/Datastream

  10. Euro Area Q1- Sharply lower as stock building turns negativegrowth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Stocks Government Consumption Investment Net Exports Source: Eurostat

  11. Leading indicators for Europe lag those for the OECD OECD composite leading indicators OECD Germany Source: Thomson/Datastream, OECD.

  12. Retail sales in U.S. weaken after initial reboundU.S. retail sales values, index, Aug. 2009=100 Total retail sales Motor vehicles and parts Source: Thomson/Datastream, Commerce Department.

  13. Japanese Industrial ProductionVolume Index, 2005 = 100 Industrial Production Source: Thomson/Datastream

  14. European unemployment begins to pick up quickly on soft economynumber of unemploymed (millions) [L], unemployment rate (%) [R] Unemployment rate [R] # of unemployed [L] Source: Eurostat.

  15. German factory orders moving towards a bottom in February? factory orders, domestic and export, ch% saar domestic orders Total export orders Source: Bundesbank.

  16. Industrial production

  17. OECD industrial production down 34% in February (saar) industrial output, ch% (3m/3m saar) Developing countries High-income OECD countries Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  18. Continued declines across emerging markets (EAP an exception)industrial production ch% (3m/3m saar) East Asia Latin America South Asia Europe and Central Asia Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  19. NIEs and Thailand record positve monthly IP gainsindustrial production ch% (m/m seasonally adjusted) Korea Thailand Hong Kong (SAR, China) Source: Thomson/Datastream, DECPG.

  20. International trade

  21. Pace of decline in trade is easing on a momentum basisgoods exports, nominal, qtr/qtr ch% (saar) Developing Countries Source: Thomson/Datastream

  22. Oil prices

  23. Crude oil prices rise on OPEC production cuts $/bbl mb/d OPEC Production [R] Oil price [L scale] Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  24. World Oil Consumption Growth (mb/d y/y) OECD Non-OECD Source: IEA and DECPG Commodities Group.

  25. U.S. crude oil stocks rise on weak demand M bbl 5-year high-low ranges Source: U.S. Dept Energy and DECPG Commodities Group.

  26. Non-oil commodity prices

  27. Food prices decline in March on weak demand (2000=100) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  28. Copper prices rebound on falling stocks $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG Commodities Group.

  29. Consumption Growth (% y/y) Source: DECPG Commodities Group.

  30. International Finance

  31. Capital flows down by two-thirds from first-quarter 2008 levels Source: DECPG Finance Team.

  32. Strong returns to EM equities in 2009 Total returns yr to date in local currency, % MSCI Developed MSCI EM MSCI BRIC EM BIG Developed HY bond *as of April 17th Source: Morgan-Stanley through Thomson/Datastream

  33. Volume of EM IPOs has come to a standstill since September 2008capital raised ($bn) [L], number of deals [R] Capital raised [L] # of deals [R] Source: Dealogic

  34. Currencies

  35. Focus

  36. The External Environment for Developing CountriesApril 2009The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

More Related