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Governance and Political-Economy in WBG Growth Analysis

Governance and Political-Economy in WBG Growth Analysis. Kai Kaiser, Senior Economic, PREM Public Sector Group Applied Inclusive Growth Analytics, Joint Vienna Institute Day 4, July 2 nd , 2009. Binding Constraints in Practice. Survey of Recent CEM Practice FY 2007-8: Grey/Quasi-Grey Cover

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Governance and Political-Economy in WBG Growth Analysis

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  1. Governance and Political-Economy in WBG Growth Analysis Kai Kaiser, Senior Economic, PREM Public Sector Group Applied Inclusive Growth Analytics, Joint Vienna Institute Day 4, July 2nd, 2009

  2. Binding Constraints in Practice • Survey of Recent CEM Practice • FY 2007-8: Grey/Quasi-Grey Cover • Desk Review & Follow-up Dialogue with TTLs • Various Methodologies • 8 HRV Approach • 1 Multidimensional • Policy Priorities Varied • Growth focus: acceleration, diversification sustainability, inclusive, pro-poor…

  3. Objectives • Identify Reform Challenges in Practice • Country Specificity • Examine how GPE being addressed for country growth policy dialogue • Develop resource materials for task teams

  4. Caveats • CEM Categorization Only Indicative • Many CEMs don’t use explicit (HRV) binding constraints to growth methodology • Constraints time-specific • Impacts of Global Economic Crisis • GPE Dialogue May Be Off-Line • Not explicit in Grey Cover CEMs • Implementation counterparts problem…

  5. Revealed Binding Constraints

  6. CEM Highlights: Angola

  7. CEM Highlights: Benin

  8. CEM Highlights: Ghana

  9. CEM Highlights: Kenya

  10. GPE & “Second Best” Institutions • Differentiate Form from Function • E.g., China’s Reforms • Shift from Normative/Presumptive • Good Enough Governance (Grindle) • Contextual Fit  Which forms are effective and politically feasible?

  11. Findings • Governance, Political-Economy, Institutional Issues Inherent to All Binding Constraints • Addressing constraint requires technical & GPE skills • Prioritize follow-up (e.g., Kenya police study) • “Governance/micro-risks” identification and remedies diffuse • Clarify terminology • Sharpen diagnostics • Need to document value added • Don’t erode CEM “objectivity” • Led to alternative/successfull engagement

  12. Resources Governance & Political-Economy for Growth Analysis SharePoint Intranet Site http://connect.worldbank.org/units/prem/PD-GPEA/pdgpe/default.aspx Selected References World Bank, (2009), Governance and Political-Economy Issues in Growth Analysis: A Survey of Recent World Bank Country Economic Memoranda, Washington, DC: (mimeo) Rodrik, Dani, (2008), Second Best Institutions, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University (mimeo)

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