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Is Sustainable Development Feasible? Dr John C. Mutter

Is Sustainable Development Feasible? Dr John C. Mutter Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Professor of International and Public Affairs. Development is a noun Sustainable is an adjective. By development we mean. By Development we mean

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Is Sustainable Development Feasible? Dr John C. Mutter

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  1. Is Sustainable Development Feasible? Dr John C. Mutter Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences Professor of International and Public Affairs

  2. Development is a nounSustainable is an adjective

  3. By development we mean ByDevelopmentwe mean ….the challenge of spreading social, political and economic opportunity to the entire global community, particularly the poorest of the poor.

  4. Synonyms for Developmentinclude:growth, expansion, progress, advance increase, maturity, enlargement improvement

  5. By sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

  6. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

  7. Nordhouse

  8. Today’s divided world

  9. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

  10. GDP Wealth increases 7yr doubling 10 yr doubling

  11. GDP = C + I + E + GC= Consumer Spending I = Investment made by industry E = Excess of Exports over Imports G = Government Spending

  12. Human Development Index° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be.° Health - life expectancy° GDP - the usual measure of welfareAdd them up, normalize, range from .0 to 1.000 Norway is top rank, Niger bottom, Afghanistan next to last (2009) US is #13, China #92, India 134, Australia #2http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

  13. GDP can be high and development low HDI GDP

  14. Life expectancy

  15. Gapminder

  16. The distribution appears to have two parts Gapminder

  17. Which direction is causation? Does improved health create wealth, or does wealth lead to improved health? Gapminder

  18. Maternal mortality

  19. Young female illiteracy

  20. Human development HDI A few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain

  21. Human development declines

  22. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

  23. HDI GDP

  24. Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading The Happy Planet Index! Life expectancy x Life satisfaction Ecological footprint GDP per capita PPP adjusted

  25. Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modal The Happy Planet Index!

  26. Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure).What governs the current global distribution of welfare?Does geography/environment matter?

  27. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

  28. GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

  29. HDI versus latitude Very few outliers

  30. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

  31. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

  32. More realistic growth model X t+1 Solow growth xt

  33. X t+1 Growth xc Stagnation - poverty trap xt

  34. X t+1 Growth xc Stagnation xt

  35. Output per capita and temperature Output density and temperature Nordhaus W D PNAS 2006;103:3510-3517

  36. What causes this development gap?

  37. Can development get started? Can prosperity be maintained?

  38. How big is the problem?

  39. What would it take to close the gap?To do nothing more than close the development gap between the top and the bottom (no growth at the top no population increase) requires a 4-foldincrease in world economic output.

  40. Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to prosper, then closing the development gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic output.

  41. BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution.

  42. All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a:6-8 foldincrease economic for only a 50% population increase What’s the problem?

  43. If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??

  44. 80 fold

  45. The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless relative to population. Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

  46. What causes this development gap?

  47. GDP Real World Global disease burden (M. Bonds) DALY=YYL+YLDYYL years of life lost; YLD years lived with disability

  48. Global distribution of DALYs

  49. Latitude Most of the the world’s chronically ill people are in the tropics

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