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Social Planning

Social Planning. Designing the Evolving Artifact. Designing on a Societal Scale. Many visions of alternative organizations of society described In books: Plato, More, Marx By revolutionaries: America, France, Russia Large scale plans for the physical environment (e.g. river valleys)

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Social Planning

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  1. Social Planning Designing the Evolving Artifact

  2. Designing on a Societal Scale • Many visions of alternative organizations of society described • In books: Plato, More, Marx • By revolutionaries: America, France, Russia • Large scale plans for the physical environment (e.g. river valleys) • Going to the moon vs. social design • “As there is some degree of depravity in mankind which requires a certain degree of circumspection and distrust, so there are other qualities in human nature which justify a certain portion of esteem and confidence.”

  3. Problem Representation • Alternative views of Marshall Plan • Commodity screening, balance of trade, European cooperation, bilateral pledge, investment bank, policy & administration • Variety of representation can paralyze decision • Conflicting assumptions • Resource limits • Need a representation so parties can act on creating and making use of new system

  4. Limiting Resources • Are not always obvious • Example of message traffic • Scarcity of information vs. scarcity of attention • What are the limiting resources in “Big Data” visions? • May not be able to quantitatively reason about limiting resources • Example of emission standards • Number of cars, how far they are driven, their design/cost, quality of air as function of emissions and other features, effects on human health • Qualitative vs. quantitative goals and representations

  5. Data for Planning • Need to incorporate assessment of data quality into process • Good predictions require • Theoretical understanding of phenomena • Reliable data regarding initial conditions • Club of Rome predictions (Malthusian catastrophe) • Too much – specific dates not believable • Too little – did not consider alternative futures (e.g. technical advances) • Paul Kennedy’s “Preparing for the 21st Century” • Predictions about aging population

  6. How do we Plan in Such Situations • Unrealistic to believe we can make accurate long-term predictions • Evil Spock’s social determinism • Need short-term, medium-term and long-term goals and designs to enable feedback • Can assess whether • External system is proceeding as expected • Design is operating as desired

  7. The Client? • Professions have adapted to bounded rationality • Impact of client access to more information? • Architect as teacher, advocate and (not just) executor • Dual role of artist and professional • “he wasn’t very happy at first. But then we smoked some good cigars, … and we drank some glasses of a good Rhein wine, … and then he began to like it very much.” • Medical profession • Challenge of balancing the cost and quality of medical care

  8. Planning and Society • Society is not a passive instrument • It will adapt to changes • Game between planners and individuals (e.g. tax codes) • Belonging to organizations • Restricts liberties • Attain goals (freedoms) that could not reach otherwise

  9. Time and Space Horizons • Metaphor of lamp in a long hall • Discounting the future to make the problem tractable • Unconcern about future may be rational • Unable to predict accurately • Consequences will be defuse • Society moving to longer-scale thinking/planning • Oil policy: Reduce dependence, exhaust supply, global warming • Amount of information can overwhelm decision makers

  10. Challenge to Long-term Planning • Two issues • Needs of present takes precedence over long-term planning • Good planners called in for immediate tasks • If sufficiently isolated to do long-term work • May be too isolated and no one listens

  11. Designing without Final Goals • Goals can be intermediate • Lead to new goals (e.g. get a CS degree) • Result of near-term actions creates environment for next stage • Evolution as model for social planning • Does evolution have a direction? • Simon hypothesizes towards variety and complexity (not progress!) • Gould would disagree except for initial stage and around punctures in equilibrium

  12. Curriculum for Social Design • Bounded rationality • Data for planning • Identifying client • Organizations in social design • Time and space horizons • Designing without final goals

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