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U.S. Reinsurers in 1985: Market Landscape and Predictive Challenges

This panel discussion at the CAS 2004 Annual Meeting focuses on the state of the U.S. reinsurance industry in 1985, including client concentration, experience by company, and sources of uncertainty in pricing distribution reinsurance.

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U.S. Reinsurers in 1985: Market Landscape and Predictive Challenges

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  1. CAS 2004 Annual MeetingReinsurance Worldwide – Panel DiscussionOpening RemarksNovember 14 – 17, 2004Montreal Mike Wacek

  2. U.S. Reinsurers in 1985 # of Reinsurers 65 Avg. NPW $64M Avg. Surplus $47M Source: Northington Partners, RAA

  3. Major Reinsurers’ Client Concentration - 1999% of Business from Top 5 and 15 Cedants Source: IBNR Weekly, Vol. VII, #24

  4. U.S. XS Liability Reinsurance Industry Experience2003 Schedule P - Gross Premiums and Losses Source: OneSource

  5. U.S. XS Liability Reinsurance Experience by Company2003 Schedule P – Gross Loss Ratios Source: OneSource

  6. “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Niels Bohr

  7. Plausible Candidates for "True" Distribution

  8. Reinsurance PricingSources of Uncertainty • Loss Development • Historical Claim Trend • Historical Rate Changes • Loss Cost Distribution • Future Claim Trend • Future Rate Changes • Future Business Mix

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