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Snapshot of Maine's Economic and Demographic Trends for Transportation Policy

This report analyzes the economic and demographic trends in Maine to inform transportation policy decisions. It discusses population growth, in-migration, birth rates, and the need for intelligent design and proactive policies.

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Snapshot of Maine's Economic and Demographic Trends for Transportation Policy

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  1. A Snapshot of Relevant Economic and Demographic Trends for the Future of Transportation Policy in Maine Michael Donihue Associate Professor of Economics at Colby College Long Range Planning Workshop Maine Department of Transportation August 15, 2005

  2. Overview • Economic Trends • Demographic Trends • Engines of Economic Growth • Policy Prescriptions

  3. Demographic Trends • 1990 – 2000 Annualized rate of population growth in Maine was 0.38% • Compared with a national rate of 1.24% per year • Growth in New England averaged 0.53% annually • By 2004 the population in Maine was 1.3 million persons (9.25% of New England)

  4. Birth Rates in Maine

  5. In-Migration to Maine 1995 – 2000

  6. Net Migration ForMaine and New England 1990 - 1999

  7. Net Migration ForMaine and New England 2000 - 2004

  8. Population Pyramids for MaineThousands of Persons 2004* 2010 PreWWII Male Female Male Female WWII Boomers Gen X Post 1980 Predicted Cumulative Population Growth 2004 - 2010 *2004 data are US Census Bureau estimates. All other data are US Census Bureau projections consistent with the 2000 Census.

  9. Population Estimates by Demographic Group Maine

  10. Population Pyramids for MaineThousands of Persons 2020 2030 WWII Male WWII Female Boomers Boomers Gen X Gen X Post 1980 Male Female Post 1980 Population Growth: 2010 to 2020 Population Growth 2020 to 2030

  11. Population Estimates by Demographic Group Maine

  12. Census Bureau Population Estimates for Maine

  13. Population Pyramids for New EnglandThousands of Persons 2010 2004 PreWWII PreWWII Male Female Male Female WWII WWII Boomers Boomers Gen X Gen X Gen Y Post 1980 Population Growth 2004 to 2010

  14. Population Estimates by Demographic Group New England

  15. Population Pyramids for New EnglandThousands of Persons 2020 2030 WWII WWII Female Female Male Male Boomers Boomers Gen X Gen X Post 1980 Post 1980 Population Growth: 2010 to 2020 Population Growth 2020 to 2030

  16. Population Estimates by Demographic Group New England

  17. Census Bureau Population Estimates for New England

  18. Why are demographics important? • Transportation infrastructure needs of an aging population are different • Has implications for the type of housing structures needed in the future • Important implications for demand for goods • Perhaps most important are trends in demands for services • An important determinant of economic growth

  19. Engines of Economic Growth • Output is produced using people, machines, and energy/raw materials. • How much is produced depends on the available technology Four sources of Growth: • Population Growth (labor force) • Growth in the Capital Stock • Growth in Technology • Growth in energy and raw materials

  20. Role for Transportation Policy • Labor supply and demand. To the extent that there exist transportation barriers in Maine then policy can play a role in increasing employment opportunities by removing the barriers. • Capital stock. Transportation infrastructure is important. Moving goods and services both within the state and creating access to export markets. • Technological improvements in the design, construction, and maintenance of our transportation infrastructure will improve Maine’s growth potential.

  21. Role for Maine DOT • Proactive: Correct policies will contribute to Maine’s economic growth potential. • Reactive policies: By simply responding to existing needs we’re simply playing catch-up thus hampering the potential for future growth. • Constraints include limits of time and money.

  22. Policy Prescription: “Intelligent Design” • DOT can play the role of creator of evolutionary transportation systems • Key is incentives • Improved public transit systems in Portland will encourage evolutionary housing opportunities and reduce sprawl • Seek public/private partnerships. Island Explorer in Acadia; Bio-diesel fuel; E-Zpass • Alternative pricing schemes on the Maine Turnpike

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