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Gothenburg Protocol Review: Emission Projections and Environmental Impacts

This workshop discusses the development of baseline projections for emissions based on national projections of energy and agricultural activity. It also includes the assessment of health and environmental impacts. Bilateral consultations have been held to collect data from EU and non-EU countries. The review aims to update national energy and emission projections and contribute to the TFIAM review report.

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Gothenburg Protocol Review: Emission Projections and Environmental Impacts

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  1. Inventory issues – Gothenburg Protocol – RAINS TFIEP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsThessaloniki, Greece, 30-31 October, 2006 Zbigniew Klimont EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

  2. Tasks for the review • Development of baseline projections for emissions • Based on national projections of (energy and agricultural) activity projections • Compilation of input data • For EU countries • For non-EU countries • Assessment of health and environmental impacts

  3. Bilateral consultations for EU countries • IIASA met with representatives of 21 countries and 6 industrial associations • Meetings took 45 days over a period 25 March – 23 November 2005 • 127 national and industrial experts participated • Information collected/verified: • National scenarios up to 2020 for energy, transport, agriculture, industrial processes, and VOC sources • Emission factors and other country-specific parameters • “Current legislation” penetration of emission control technologies, potential for further controls and their costs • Exchange of information till mid-September 2006

  4. Input data for non-EU countries • Bilateral consultations held with: • Norway, (Switzerland) • Russia, Ukraine (funded by DG-ENV) • Draft input data documented in CIAM report 1/2006 • Feedbacks from national experts invited up to end of 2006 • Updated projections in early 2007

  5. Sources of energy projections for non-EU countries

  6. Draft projections of emissions for non-EU countries(relative to the 2000 levels)

  7. Further time table for the Gothenburg review • December 2006: Deadline for comments on input data for non-EU countries • May 2007: Draft assessment of environmental impacts presented to TFIAM • August 2006: Report to the EMEP Steering Body • September 2007: Report to WGSR

  8. Elements of the 2007 workplan • Review of the Gothenburg Protocol: • Update national energy & emission projections • Contribution to TFIAM-review report • Revision of the protocol: • Report on agricultural emissions modelling • Report on GAINS-model optimizations result • Further development of (dynamic) ecosystem modelling incl. the nitrogen cycle • Further explore options for target setting and robustness analysis • Analysis of effects of hemispheric pollution scenarios • Improve treatment of negative cost measures in GAINS • Further evaluation of sectoral trends & MFR, incl. NTM, emerging technologies & ships

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