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WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE EU: problems and challenges

WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE EU: problems and challenges. Prof. Dr. Mustafa Acar Aksaray University & Kırıkkale University , Turkey. plan. What’s the matter with the EU ? Sources of the problems What can be done?. What’s the matter ?.

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WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE EU: problems and challenges

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  1. WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE EU: problemsandchallenges Prof. Dr. Mustafa Acar Aksaray University& Kırıkkale University, Turkey

  2. plan • What’sthematterwiththe EU? • Sources of theproblems • What can be done?

  3. What’sthematter? • EU is in deepcrisis: multi-dimensional problem • Economic • Political • Demographic • Cultural: socialintegration

  4. Sources of the problem • Philosophical-historical: IbnKhaldun, life-cycle of thecivilizations.. • Demographic: agingpopulation • Economic: fiscaldiscipline, heavydebtburden, budgetdeficits, labor market regulations, stagnation.. • Cultural: migration, socialintegration, racism • Political: leadership, instability

  5. Philosophical-historical • IbnKhaldun, life-cycle of thecivilizations.. • Civilizationsarejustlikehumanbeings… • Theyare not eternal • Collapse is inevitable • Hegemony is “mobile” • Laws of historyandsocialchange..

  6. Demographic problem • Agingpopulation • Medianage: 43 (Turkey: 28) • Population is not increasing (share) • Implication: sustainability of thesocialsecuritysystem (increasingdependencyratio=> higherburden on workingpopulation => moreresourcestonon-employedpopulation)

  7. Populationtrends

  8. Population (1960=100)

  9. PopulationStructurebyMajorAgeGroups, EU 27 (% of total population)

  10. Population Pyramids, EU 27 (% of total population)

  11. Population Pyramids, EU 27 (% of total population)

  12. Change in the Share of Population Aged 65 Years or Over Between 1990 and 2009 (percentage point change)

  13. PopulationAgeStructureIndicators, 2009

  14. Economic problem • Deterioratingmacroindicators • Lack of fiscaldiscipline • heavydebtburden • budgetdeficits • labor market regulations • stagnation..

  15. Stagnation.. • Greek problem! • Heavydebtburden • Financialvolatility • Politicalinstability • Highbudgetdeficits • Lowergrowth • Lowpotentialoutput • Highunemploymentrates • Lack of fiscalunionand • Coordinationproblems

  16. Badmacro’sforEU (2011)

  17. Cultural-social problem • Migrationlaws (arewegoingtoallow “illegal migration”?) • socialintegration (homogenization vs. pluralism) • Nationalism-racism(neo-Nazi movements on therise) • Be on therightside: moderate, democrat, pluralist; not radical, anti-democrat, racist, isolationist, xenophobic.

  18. Immigrants, 2008 (per 1000 inhabitants)

  19. PoliticalIssuesandLeadership • Politicalinstability • Enlargement: vertical, horizental, ornon? • Fiscalunion: areweready • Future of Euro-zone? Greek in orout? • .. • Allrequires“leadership” • Strong • Charismatic • Courageous • Determined • Readytotake risk and pay theprice

  20. Whattodo? • Leadership: EU has toraisenewleaders: charismatic, reformist, readyto pay theprice of change • Agingpopulation: nothingmuchto do exceptchangingthemigrationlaws • ImmigrationIssues: allowlabormobility, lift visarequirements, readytosharethewelfarewith “others..” • Integrationproblems: EU has toopendoorsforothers, be tolerant, sensitivetoplurality, freedoms.. • Fiscalunion: necessaryif EU wantstosurvive • EU has toreview“welfarestate” andsocialsecuritypolicies • Nationalist-racisttrends: liberal-democraticvalues, tolerance, alliance of civilizations, dialogue, freetrade

  21. ThankYouacar.aksaray.edu.tracar70@gmail.com

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