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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2008. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2008 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days The CMAP precipitation dataset shows that, during the past 90 days, above normal precipitation occurred over most of the tropical Indian Ocean, the maritime continent, southern East Asia, and the waters east of Japan. Precipitation was below normal over India, southeastern Indo-China peninsula, and Australia.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation occurred over 10S-10N, Indo-China peninsula, southwestern China, and the waters east of Japan. Below normal precipitation was observed over India, northwestern Pacific, Korea, Japan, and subtropical southern hemisphere.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 5 Days In the past five days, rainfall was below normal over the Bay of Bengal, southern India, tropical eastern Arabian Sea, subtropical northwestern Pacific, and east of Papua New Guinea. Above normal precipitation was seen over southern China and part of Indonesia.
Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes • *This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. • (top right) After a season with normal or slightly below-normal monsoon rainfall, India has experienced an overall drier-than-normal condition. • (mid and bottom right) When the monsoon rain band shifts southeastward during this time of the year, above normal rainfall has often been observed over Southeast Asia and the maritime continent. However, dry condition still persists over the top end of Australia.
Atmospheric Circulation During the past week, an anomalous low-level anti-cyclonic pattern controlled the northwestern Pacific and the South China Sea, decreasing local precipitation. Anomalous northwesterly flow from northern India reduced precipitation over southern India and the Bay of Bengal. In addition, intensified southerly and southwesterly flows increased the precipitation over southern China.
Summary • After the Asian summer monsoon season, the precipitation over India and subtropical northwestern Pacific has been below normal, although above normal rainfall has been observed over southern China. The precipitation over the Indo-China peninsula and equatorial Indian Ocean has decreased and become normal. • Prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon by the NCEP Global Forecast System is unavailable this time.
