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Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster Dr. Ellen Prager Earth2Ocean, Inc. earth2ocean

CHOW 2005 Predicting and Preparing for Natural Disasters. Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster Dr. Ellen Prager Earth2Ocean, Inc. www.earth2ocean.net. Tsunamis - Dr. Costas Synolakis, USC Earthquakes - Dr. Kate Hutton, Caltech Volcanoes - Dr. Stanley Williams, Arizona State Univ.

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Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster Dr. Ellen Prager Earth2Ocean, Inc. earth2ocean

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  1. CHOW 2005 Predicting and Preparing for Natural Disasters Science as a Key to Preventing Disaster Dr. Ellen Prager Earth2Ocean, Inc. www.earth2ocean.net Tsunamis - Dr. Costas Synolakis, USC Earthquakes - Dr. Kate Hutton, Caltech Volcanoes - Dr. Stanley Williams, Arizona State Univ.

  2. Hurricanes Earthquakes Tsunamis Volcanic Eruptions Swanson, USGS Science is providing the why, where, & how…. ??? When and how big NGDC/NOAA NGDC/NOAA

  3. December 26, 2004 • NW Indonesia • 9.0 - 9.3 Magnitude • 1300 km long rupture, 500s • 30 km depth • > 283,000 deaths • 3 - 10 m tsunami • 50 m to 1 km inland • 3 - 12 m vertical run-up, maximum 30 m in v-shaped valley Launch for Move Geist, USGS Before After Courtesy DigitalGlobe and StormCenter Communications

  4. Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes 1755 - Portugal 1918 - Puerto Rico 1929 - Grand Banks, Newfoundland 1946 - Hawaii 1958 - Alaska 1960 - Chile 1964 - Alaska 1992 - Nicaragua, Flores Island 1993 - Okushiri 1994 - East Java 1994 - Mindoro, Kuril Islands 1995 - Manzanillo 1996 - Irian Jaya, Peru 1998 - Papua New Guinea 2004 - Sumatra 1992, NGDC/NOAA Tsunamis Not If, When!

  5. HA, 1946 McCormack, 2000 Triggering Mechanisms: (Why) Earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, asteroid impacts Open Ocean: (How) Long, low wave; fast (500 mph); little energy loss, entire water column in motion At Shore: (How) Powerful surge or waves, variable impact, height, run-up and inland inundation NW Sumatra USC Tsunami Group

  6. Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis, Hurricanes World Seismicity 1975-1995 (Where) Depth Worldwide there are 2-3 earthquakes of 6.5 magnitude or greater each week

  7. Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes Understanding of Why, Where, and How - Assess Risk and Plan for the Future. Subduction Zone X Mid-Ocean Ridge After Vigil, This Dynamic Planet Ward and Day, 2001 Puerto Rico Trench USGS Earthquakes Landslides Volcanic Eruptions USGS

  8. Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes Improved Understanding & Technology Monitoring and Warning Systems (Multi-function) Planning Arrival Time 2002 2005 < 10 m elevation Phuket, Thailand, NASA/JPL Dr. Vasily Titov, PMEL/NOAA

  9. Tsunamis, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Hurricanes The Importance of Education Know the warning signs and appropriate response • Retreat of the sea - fast, extreme low tide • Ground shaking • Loud noise from offshore - bang or rushing freight train Indonesia 2004, DIGITALGLOBE

  10. Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Tsunamis Communication, Forecasts & Emergency Response Infrastructure USGS

  11. Natural hazards are unpreventable, disasters are not. With more people living in more places, the risks are escalating. But we can: • Improve understanding and forecasts; • Assess risk, monitor, and prepare; • Create means for timely, widely disseminated warnings; • Educate about risks and appropriate response; • Put in place emergency response infrastructure Investment, political will, education, public support, adequate workforce, technology, leadership, long-term support and maintenance

  12. US Virgin Islands, 1867 US Virgin Islands, today

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