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Projects

Projects. EH 447, 2008/9 Week 5-2 Albrecht Ritschl. What I want you to do. Find and work with data Get ideas from literature Perform a few data transformations Provide a descriptive account of the episode in question, based on your data analysis. Common data sources.

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Projects

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  1. Projects EH 447, 2008/9 Week 5-2 Albrecht Ritschl

  2. What I want you to do • Find and work with data • Get ideas from literature • Perform a few data transformations • Provide a descriptive account of the episode in question, based on your data analysis

  3. Common data sources • Angus Maddison on GDP per capita (at Univ. of Groningen website) • NBER macrohistory database for interewar period (mostly US, some UK, F) • U.S. Historical Statistics, latest edition • League of Nations data (at Northwestern Univ. website) • Postwar statistics: OECD and many national statistical offices

  4. Identifying Great Depressions • For your home country (if possible) • Get data (also background readings!) • Replicate graphs in Ritschl/Straumann (2008), using 2% rule • Apply first differences of logarithms as an alternative (can be done in Excel) • Report findings on a few slides

  5. China • Do U find growth spurt since 1980s? • Try to find data on capital stock, calculate TFP growth for subperiods • Check out literature: Alwyn Young, several papers

  6. (South-)East Asia and WW2 • Try to find GDP per capita data, apply 2% rule since 1913 wherever possible. • Provide your own interpretation for 1950s

  7. Western Europe • Find data from your preferred country and perform 2% exercise (for Britain, less – why?) • Provide your own interpretation of Golden Age of 1950s

  8. Latin America • Same as before. Be good and do this for more than one country • Phoenix miracles: • Argentina • Mexico

  9. Africa (this is the most interesting of all.. ) Same as before. Perform 2 % exercise. • Aggregate up a few countries, put together in appropriate groups

  10. Monetary policy • Go to NBER macrohistory database, compute M1 and M2 for interwar period, plot components, growth rates • Combine with suitable output and price data • Run VARs in Eviews (I’ll help a bit)

  11. Monetary policy • The same can be done for a few other countries where data are good • Canada (?) • Norway, Sweden, Netherlands (?) • France • Germany

  12. Forecasting the G-D • Take series of machine orders, housing starts from NBER database • Combine with output • Run VAR to Sept 1929 and predict output out of sample • Same with Germany (other countries?)

  13. Investment demand • Find data on components of investment (machine orders, housing starts, commercial construction) and relate to interest rate • (Run VARs, same as in Bernanke 1983)

  14. Financial markets • Collect and plot stock market indices for major countries in interwar period • Metrics project: run VAR between stock market, CPI and output and try to predict out of sample

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