Smart Driving Cars: What Is In It For Whom? Alain L. Kornhauser Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineer

1. Smart Driving Cars: What Is In It For Whom? Alain L. KornhauserProfessor, Operations Research & Financial EngineeringDirector, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering Princeton UniversityBoard Chair, Advanced Transit Association (ATRA)

3. Why Are We Going? Save our Cities????

4. Starting in the 1960s… Westinghouse Skybus1960’s- APM Some/I thought that: “The automation & computer technology that took us to the moon could now revolutionize mass transit and save our cities from the onslaught of the automobile”

5. APM Automated People Movers and a growing number of Driverless Metros 1971 Tampa Beijing JFK Newark Paris Milan Now exist in essentially every Major Airport

6. Starting in the 1960s… Donn Fichter“Individualized Automatic Transit and the City” 1964 Westinghouse Skybus1960’s- PRT APM Some thought that: “The automation & computer technology that took us to the moon could now revolutionize mass transit and save our cities from the onslaught of the automobile”

7. PRT Personal Raid Transit J. Edward Anderson William Garrard Alain Kornhauser • Since Demand very diffuse (Spatially and Temporally): • Many stationsserved by Many small vehicles • (rather than a few large vehicles). • Many stations • Each off-line with interconnected mainlines • To minimize intermediate stops and transfers • Many small vehicles • Require more sophisticated control systems, • both longitudinal and lateral. ~1971: U of Minnesota extended Ficter’s vision & became the center of PRT research focused on delivering auto-like ubiquitous mobility throughout urban areas

8. Early “victory” Morgantown 1975 Video1Video2

9. About 40 years ago: Exec. Director of APTA* said to me: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future… And Always will be!!!” Well after 40 years..… …are we finally approaching the promised land??? *American Public Transit Association

10. Today… Morgantown 1975 Remains a critical mobility system today & planning an expansion

11. And Today… Video Masdar & Heathrow are operational

12. But implementation progress has been excruciatingly slow … • About 40 years ago: Exec. Director of APTA* said to me: “Alain: PRT is the transportation system of the future… And Always will be!!!” Well after 40 years..… …are we finally approaching the promised land??? *American Public Transit Association

13. What he was saying was… • Final Region-wide Systems would be really great, but… • Any great final system MUST evolve from some initial system and be great at EVERY step of the way, otherwise… • It will always be “a system of the future”. • The dedicated grade-separated guideway infrastructure requirement of PRT may simply be too onerous and risky for it to ever serve a significant share of the urban mobility market.

15. Why Are We Going? Its NOT Save our Cities …..NOT Yet!

16. Maybe it is simply the fact that… We really don’t want to drive…

17. And that… We aren’t that good… ~92% crashes involve human error 2009 Road Traffic Deaths (World Health Org): US: 42,642; World: 578,543; China: 96,611 DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research More on Google: Levandowski Presentation

18. Where Are We Now?

19. Intelligent Transportation Systems • Coined by Fed DoT in early ‘90s to include: • ATMS (Adv. Transp. Management Systems) • Intelligent Traffic Control Systems and Value Pricing Systems ( EZ Pass mid 80s) • ATIS (Adv. Transp. Information Systems) • Turn-by-Turn GPS Route Guidance Systems (‘97 CoPilot Live) • ARTS (Adv. Rural Transp. Systems) • ATS(Automated Transit Systems) • Automated People Movers and Personal Rapid Transit (Ficter ‘64, W. Alden ’71, WWU ‘75 ) • AHS(Automated Highway Systems) (1939 World’s Fair, RCA-Sarnoff late 50s*, R.Fenton‘72 OSU) • Autonomous vehicles • * VK Zworykin & L Flory “Electronic Control of Motor Vehicles on Highways” Proc. 37th Annual Mtg Highway Research Board, 1958

20. Evolution of AHS Concept • Zworykin & Flory @ RCA-Sarnoff in Princeton, Late 50s* * VK Zworykin & L Flory “Electronic Control of Motor Vehicles on Highways” Proc. 37th Annual Mtg Highway Research Board, 1958 • Robert E Fenton @ OSU, Early 70s* * “A Headway Safety Policy for Automated Highway Operations” R.E. Fenton 1979 GM Futurama @ 1939 World’s Fair

21. Evolution of AHS Concept(Automated Highway System) ~ 2000: Military: Mandate to automate ground logistics 2007 2005 2004 Military: Absolutely NOT interested in building Infrastructure Must Operate in “Harshest” Environment AHS Studies by FHWA in late 70’s and mid 90’s

22. 2005 2007 Beginning of Serious Vehicle Automation Link to Presentation Old House Not Easy 2005 2007

23. 2. Current State of Driverless Vehicles http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ET_DaHJzUbI • http://www.ultraglobalprt.com/heathrow-announces-plans-additional-personal-rapid-transit-prt-system-heathrow/# http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s0RCSX95QmE • Recent advances in automated systems in exclusive environments: • Milan driverless Metro • PodCar system at Heathrow • Extension Plans announced • Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines

24. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars • Much of the public interest has been promoted by the car. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE • It is not driverless… • Not yet • But substantial advancements have focused on: • Development of a self-driving vehicle that can operate in the existing environment. • Motivated by fact: >90% of road traffic accidents involve human error. So… remove the human from the loop. • FAA Sept 2007 Operator’s Manual “ Majority of ramp accidents involve Human error” • Also… People often really do not want to drive. • Driven over 500,000 miles in self-driving mode • http://gawker.com/5825012/how-a-top-google-executive-nearly-killed-a-guy

25. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars, cont. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=WEh7qIon36s • Substantial advances by auto industry: • Automated parking

26. Audi http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ3s_cdk_yE&feature=player_embedded

27. Bosch http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D0ZN2tPihQ&feature=player_embedded

28. Mercedes-Benz Brake-assist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tpI0S6XWvY

29. http://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/build/class-S/model-S400HV%23performance#performancehttp://www.mbusa.com/mercedes/vehicles/build/class-S/model-S400HV%23performance#performance

30. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars, cont. Mercedes-Benz Steering-assist http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7aTbSf1Lyo • Substantial advances by auto industry: • Automated parking • Jam Assist (lane keeping + collision avoidance) • Currently available as a $3K option @ Mercedes Dealers

31. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars, cont. • Substantial advances by auto industry: • Automated parking • Jam Assist (lane keeping + collision avoidance) • Currently available as a $3K option @ Mercedes Dealers • Partnership arrangement btwn Parts suppliers and manufacturers (ex: Continental + BMW) suggests that such options will become common place. • Recent successful completion of a collaborative European research initiatives demonstrating automated driving systems using low-cost sensing components

32. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars, cont. • Substantial advances by Federal Regulators: • NHTSA Administrator David Strickland: • NHTSA extending vehicle crash oversight from Mitigation to Avoidance • Mitigation: Airbags, Seatbelts, CrumpleZones • Avoidance:AntiLockBrakes, ActiveStabilityControl, V2X, CollisionAvoidance, LaneKeeping, DriverMonitoring, AutomatedDriving

34. Assorted Videos of Self-Driving Cars http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/1_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0D0ZN2tPihQ&feature=player_embedded http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/2_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZ3s_cdk_yE&feature=player_embedded http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/3_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ridS396W2BY&feature=player_detailpage http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/VolvoPlatooningConcept.wmv http://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Videos/4_FrozenLakeVID_onlySteeringWoIndividualWheelBraking.mp4

35. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdgQpa1pUUE

36. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3ulKUJtZ3o

37. Initial Demonstrationof Autonomous Transit • Autonomous Buses at La Rochelle (CyberCars/Cybus/INRIA) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72-PlSFwP5Y • Simple virtual non-exclusive roadway • Virtual vehicle-based longitudinal (collision avoidance) and lateral (lane keeping) systems

38. 2. Current State of Driverless Cars, cont. • Technology forecasts by the European Researchers: • Looks to Full Automation ~ 2030

39. What is in it for whom? • Players • Consumers • Automobile Companies • Infrastructure Providers/Managers (DoT, NJTPA, PANYNJ) • Transit Operators • Insurance Companies • Society/The Economy

40. What is in it for whom? • Consumers • Main Values: Increased Safety, Comfort and Convenience. • AAA:

41. What is in it for whom? DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research • Consumers • Main Values: Increased Safety, Comfort and Convenience.

42. What is in it for whom? DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research • Consumers • Main Values: Increased Safety, Comfort and Convenience.

43. What is in it for whom? DOT HS 810 767 Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research • Consumer • Main Values: Increased Safety, Comfort and Convenience. $475 are Pass-through Dollars

44. What is in it for whom? $475 are “Pass-through” Dollars Assume: Emergence of “Price Leading” Insurer $450 Discount for You $25 for Flo or the Gecko Could Discount Finance?: Maybe too expensive? $3,000. Option

45. Could “Pass-through” Finance Mercedes Lane Keeping + Jam Assist? to be Available in 2014 Models Probably only 2/3rds the safety of Google Car $475 Pass-through becomes: $320 $20/yrfor Flo or the Gecko $300/yr to Mercedes • You get (for free): • Prob. of your car killing you reduced factor: 2/3*.81= 0.54 (half) • Prob. of your car injuring you reduced factor: 2/3*.65= 0.44 • “Save” expected “deductible self-insurance”: $247/yr • Comfort • Convenience • “Anxiety” relief

46. What is in it for whom? New Jersey Consumers

47. What is in if for whom? Can’t really place value on the injuries and lives that will be saved Priceless! Self-driving Technology has a REAL business model! Society

48. How Might We Get There?

49. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System • Fact:For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! • It Consists of: • Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ Port Authority Bus Terminal • 223 Departure Gates • Readily Accommodates 700 Buses/hr

50. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System • Fact:For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! • It Consists of: • Efficient Boarding/Alighting @ PA Bus Terminal • Direct Access/Egress to Exclusive Lanes in the Lincoln Tunnel