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Interpretation of household indicators

Interpretation of household indicators. Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata. Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero , 2014, San José, Costa Rica. Overview of energy e fficiency p olicies for households: case of Brazil.

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Interpretation of household indicators

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  1. Interpretation of household indicators Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE 24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

  2. Overview of energy efficiency policies for households: case of Brazil Targets programs for air conditioners, water heaters, gas stoves and ovens and refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N° 323, 324, 325 and 326 Changes Law 9.991 60% of the amount of PEE’s must be allocated to low income energy efficiency projects Minimum levels of energy efficiency for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N° 132 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for water gas heaters Interministerial Ordinance N° 298 PNE 2030 2006 2009 2007 2008 2010 2011 PNEF – Portaria N°594 Maximum levels of electricity consumption for refrigerators and freezers Interministerial Ordinance N° 362 Minimum levels of energy efficiency for gas stoves and ovens and air conditioners Interministerial Ordinance N° 363 and 364 Building labelling for household sector Targets programs for compact fluorescent lamps Interministerial Ordinance N° 1.008 Interministerial Ordinance N° 1.007 - Schedule establishes minimum limits for incandescent lamps in order to ban them from the market Huge impact in the household sector! Source: MME/EPE, 2013

  3. Global trends • Consumption by end-use • Diffusion of efficient equipment • Domestic electrical appliances

  4. Contents • Global trends • Trends in household consumption and main drivers (private consumption and number of households) • Identification of homogenous periods (index) • Variation by period (%/year) • Specific energy consumption per household (or per dwelling): total (toe/household) and electricity(kWh per household) (trends with double vertical axis) • Specific electricity consumption per household vs per electrified household (if relevant)

  5. Trends in main drivers of householdenergyconsumption: Identification of homogeneous periods : case of Brazil 1990-2005: Plano Real since 1993): increase in private consumption and energy crisis in 2001 (decrease in energy consumption, of which 20% for electricity). 2005-2012 Private consumption increased faster than energy consumption. Household devices regulated by Energy Efficiency Law more available in market. Energy consumption trends, private consumption and number of households (1990=100, Brazil)

  6. Trends in main drivers of householdenergyconsumption: case of Brazil • Household energy consumption is growing moderately and much slower than household income (private consumption), especially since 2005. • The electricity consumption is following the increase in private consumption. • Steady demographic pressure (increasing number of households)~ 2,6% per year Trends in energy consumption, private consumption and number of households in Brazil (%/year)

  7. Specific energy consumption per household: case of Brazil • Energy consumption decrease due to the fall in the firewood demand. • Electricity consumption increase due to the growth of private consumption and a better income distribution. Electricity crisis Source: Brazilian Energy Balance (BEN), EPE

  8. Specific energy consumption per household: case of Chile

  9. Specific electricity per household: effect of electrification • Per electrified household, the electricity consumption increases less rapidly than per household, due to households electrification: • In Bolivia and Paraguay, the electricity consumption per electrified household actually decreased and the increase in the electricity consumption per household is due to electrification (from 68% to 77% in Bolivia and from 83% to 100% in Paraguay). • In Morocco, electrification explains 2/3 of the electricity consumption growth • The right indicator to monitor energy efficiency is the electricity consumption per electrified household. Specific electricity consumption per household: effect of electrification (2000-2010) Bolivia: 2004-2011

  10. Global trends • Consumption by end-use • Diffusion of efficient equipments • Domestic electrical appliances

  11. Contents Consumption by end-use Distribution of consumption by main end-use (space heating, cooking, water heating, air conditioning, electrical appliances and lighting; pie charts in 2000 and 2010)  main end-uses; Specific consumption by main end-use (toe or kWh /dwelling) Specific consumption for cooking per dwelling: final and useful energy (histograms for 2000 and 2010)  substitution effect Specific consumption for space heating (climate corrected if possible histograms for 2000 and 2010)

  12. Distribution of energy consumption by end-use: Brazil • Increasing share of electricity captive use, because an increase in household electricity equipment ownership. • Decreasing in cooking consumption due to the participation of more efficient fuels (reduction in firewood consumption) and increased meals made ​​outside the home. Source: BEN, EPE

  13. Distribution of consumption by end-use: case of Chile (2010) Source: estudio “Curva de conservación de la energía del sector residencial” , 2010 (encuesta de cerca de 3200 hogares con una representatividad de 95%)

  14. Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Brazil Stable consumption with a decreasing specific consumption for cooking and an increasing use of electricity. Households specific energy consumption by main end-use (Brazil) Source: EPE

  15. Household specific consumption by end-use: case of Argentina Specific consumption by end-use (toe/households)

  16. Specific electricity consumption per household by end-use: Brazil • The growth of the specific electricity consumption per household is mainly linked to large electrical equipment such as refrigerators, TV, washing machines, air conditioning and others. • Lighting and water heating follow a stable trend. Source: EPE Source: ODYSSEE

  17. Specific energy consumption per household by end-use: Chile Household specific energy consumption by main end-use (2010) (Chile)

  18. Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: Brazil Specific energy consumption for cooking is decreasing steadily because of substitution of biomass by LPG. Household specific energy consumption for cooking (toe/household) (Brazil) Medener

  19. Specific energy consumption of households for cooking: effect of substitution : case of Brazil Over the period 1990-2010, substitution of LPG for biomass contributed to decrease the consumption per household by 0.8%/year Since 2000, this substitution trend reversed slightly and fuel substitutions contributed to slightly increase the consumption per household for cooking. Substitution effect = difference in variation of final and useful energy; useful energy calculated by multiplying final energy by end-use efficiency (5% efficiency for wood,; 45% for LPG) Source: BIEE/EPE

  20. Global trends • Consumption by end-use • Diffusion of efficient equipment • Domestic electrical appliances

  21. Contents • Indicators of diffusion of efficient appliances : • Diffusion of solar water heaters: • annual surface of solar water heaters installed per year (m2) • % of households equipped* • production of solar heat** (ktoe/capita/ year) and energy saved • Penetration of efficient lamps : • Number of CFL per household • % of households with one CFL • Penetration of efficient labels

  22. Solar water heater (SWH) equipmentrates: Brazil • Diffusion of SWH during period 2005-2012 from 1,3% to almost 4%; • Increase of installed area from 2.795 to 8.419 m2/ 1.000 inhab. 745 GWh (avoided consumption) Source: Brazilian Association on Refrigeration, Air Conditioning, Ventilation and Heating (ABRAVA) *% of households with SHW= total installed area in m2 divided by the average size of a solar panel per dwelling (e.g. 3 m2 /); avoided consumption= production of solar heat (calculated from the installed area of solar water heaters multiplied by the average solar output per m2) .

  23. Household CFL diffusion : case of Tunisia Strong increase in the average number of CFL per household from 1 in 2007 to 2.7 in 2010; Source ANME (ratio parc installé chez les ménages sur nombre de ménages

  24. Market share of label A and B for refrigerators (Chile ) Diffusion of efficient labels

  25. Market share of label A and B for lamps (Chile) Diffusion of efficient labels

  26. Global trends • Specific consumption by end-use • Diffusion of efficient equipments • Domestic electrical appliances

  27. Content • Household electrical appliances • Trends in household equipment ownership: 2000 and 2010 • Distribution of electricity consumption by end-use/equipment (lighting, refrigerator, TV, etc…) (chart pies 2000 and 2010); • Specific consumption by appliance; • Decomposition of electricity consumption variation by equipment/end-use

  28. Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Brazil Source: EPE

  29. Trends in household ownership of electrical appliances: case of Chile

  30. Distribution of electricity consumption per household by appliance/end-use: Chile

  31. Specific electricity consumption by type of appliance : Chile

  32. Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances • The objective of the decomposition of the electricity consumption variation of a given appliance (e.g. refrigerators) between 2 years (e.g. 2000 and 2010) is to measure the effect of 3 factors: • Demographic effect : more households • Equipment ownership effect : impact of the increase in the number of appliances • Energy savings effect: influence of a decrease in the average specific consumption per appliance (kWh/year)

  33. Decomposition of the variation of the electricity consumption of appliances : methodology • Appliance consumption E= HH*TEQ*SEC • With: • E consumption of the appliance • HH: number of households • TEQ: equipment ownership ratio (% of households with the appliance) • SEC: average specific consumption of the appliance (kWh/year) • Calculation of electricity consumption variation between year 0 and t • Demographic effect =∆HH*TEQ0*SEC0 • Equipment ownership effect: HH0*∆TEQ*SEC0 • Energy savings effect: HHt*TEQt*∆SEC • Et - E0= sum of 3 effects

  34. Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : example of TV

  35. Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of refrigerators in Brazil • The increased number of households contributed to raise the consumption by 3.757 GWh (“demographic effect” ). • Progression in the diffusion of the equipment contributed to a further 1.402 GWh increase. • However, the consumption of refrigerators only increased by 4.039 GWh and not by 5.159 GWh as energy savings contributed lower the consumption by 1.119 GWh. Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for refrigerators in Brazil (2005-2012) Source: EPE

  36. Decomposition of the electricity consumption variation : case of air conditioning in Brazil • The equipment ownership was the main factor for the consumption increase; • This happened due to demographic effect as well as the increase in income in the period, attending a part of the pent-up demand for air conditioners. Drivers of the electricity consumption variation for air conditioning in Brazil (2005-2012) Source: EPE

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