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EIA’s “Side Case” Scenarios for t he U.S. and the South

EIA’s “Side Case” Scenarios for t he U.S. and the South. This analysis was conducted for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative. By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology August 8, 2014.

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EIA’s “Side Case” Scenarios for t he U.S. and the South

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  1. EIA’s “Side Case” Scenarios for the U.S. and the South This analysis was conducted for Georgia Tech’s “Future of Electric Power in the South” (FEPS) initiative. By: Marilyn Brown, Matt Cox, and Xiaojing Sun Georgia Institute of Technology August 8, 2014

  2. Progress Since our July 11th FEPS Webinar • Ran various EIA “side cases” on Georgia Tech’s National Energy Modeling System (GT-NEMS 2014): • Examined conditions that are more favorable to higher levels of solar PV and CHP penetration. • How might these conditions impact the electric power system in the South? • Continued to examine options for modeling “disruptions” – webinar on August 29 at 2 pm. • Plans have begun for a meeting co-convened with Duke University’s Nicholas Institute at Georgia Tech on April 26: • “Shaping the Southeast’s Energy Future: Regional Electricity Trends and the EPA’s Clean Power Plan”

  3. The South Census Region

  4. Energy Consumption in the South Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average Total Energy Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of total energy consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.4% for the US, and 0.54% for the South

  5. The South Continues to Lag the Nation in its Reliance on Renewable Electricity Electricity generation by fuel in the South, 2005-2040 (trillion kilowatthours) Projections History 2012 Natural Gas Renewables Nuclear Coal Petroleum liquids and other

  6. Residential Electricity Demand Will Grow more Rapidly than the US Average Residential Electricity Consumption in the South, 2005-2040 (billion kWh) Projections History 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of residential electricity consumption from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.67% for the US, 0.99% for the South

  7. BAU Tech Progress Expected to Have Little Impact on Southern Electricity Load Drivers • Of US demand for space cooling services, the South is projected to consume 63%. • Space cooling loads are expected to increase over time, requiring more peak generation.

  8. Technology Advancement has Potential to Accelerate Commercial Sector Efficiency • South continues to lag US in adoption of more stringent commercial building codes • Forthcoming cost advantages in categories such as lighting may help reduce commercial sector demand (e.g., SSL)

  9. Despite Rising Energy Consumption, Electricity Prices in the South Remain Low Average Electricity Prices in the South, 2005-2040 (2012 cents per kilowatthour) History Projections 2012 Projection for the South The average annual growth rate of retail electricity prices from 2013-2040 is forecast to be 0.51% for the US, 0.47% for the South

  10. Boilers and CHP Meet Proportionally More Thermal Demand in the South

  11. IndustrialCHP is More Important in the South, but Not Commercial CHP

  12. CHPSystem Prices Decline Over Time Prices are flat after 2035

  13. The South Relies More on Biomass and Less on Other Renewable Resources Than the U.S. Total generation from wind, solar and other renewables in the South (Billion kWh) Solar Wind Biomass MSW/LFG

  14. Biomass and Wind Will Replace Hydro as the Largest Renewable Electricity Sources Renewable electricity generation in 2012, 2020, 2030 and 2040 Biomass and waste Solar Wind Hydro power Solar Will Increase Significantly Post 2030

  15. Distributed Solar PV in the Commercial Sector Will Experience Declining Cost and Better Efficiency SunShot Initiative Goal: 1.25$/W in 2020

  16. Distributed Solar PV in Residential Sector Will Face Slightly Higher Costs Than in the Commercial Sector SunShot Initiative Goal: 1.5 $/W in 2020

  17. Power Sector Solar PV Cost Will Decline, Following a Three-Stage Learning Curve SunShot Initiative Goal: 1 $/W in 2020 In 2013, Utility scale PV cost was ~2 $/W Source: DOE SunShot Initiative http://www.energy.gov/articles/us-utility-scale-solar-60-percent-towards-cost-competition-goal

  18. Distributed Solar PV Generation The SERC RegionWill Significantly Increase Electricity Generation from Utility Scale Solar PV Utility Scale Solar PV Generation The South would account for 12% of the utility PV generation in 2020, 34% in 2040. The South would account for 20% of the nation’s distributed PV generation in 2020, 29% in 2040.

  19. Next Steps for FEPS • Examine more EIA’s “side cases”: • Extended policies • High demand technologies • Low electricity demand • High nuclear • $25/t-CO2 tax • Begin designing our own scenarios • Third webinar on August 29

  20. For More Information Professor Marilyn A. Brown School of Public Policy Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332-0345 Marilyn.Brown@pubpolicy.gatech.edu Climate and Energy Policy Lab: http://www.cepl.gatech.edu ResearchAssistants: Alexander Smith (Overview) asmith313@gatech.edu Matt Cox (CHP) Matt.Cox@gatech.edu Xiaojing Sun (Solar PV) xsun44@gatech.edu

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