An Integrated Approach to Observations of Pre-earthquake Signals

1. Pre-Earthquake Processes A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies A brief Explanation An Integrated Approach to Observations of Pre-earthquake Signals Finally we have publications that clearly explain some of the precursor components for earthquake prediction. Recent publications offer an insight into the multi disciplinary approach by globally accreted scientists both from within Seismology and from GIS disciplines. When combined it provides an integrated satellite and terrestrial framework for multi-parameter observations of regional anomalies indicating data signature formations which confirm the prediction data of a potential developing earthquake event.

2. Earthquakes progress as chain reactions After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)

3. Earthquakes progress as chain reactions After Tom Jordan (SCEC, Monterey CA,2011)

4. What is happening before large Earthquakes?

5. Physical Model (e.g. Scholz et al., 1973, Tramutoli et al., 2013, Pulinets & Ouzounov, 2011) under stress microcracks formation can increase degassing rate after the quake and fault rupture degassing restart Rn, CO2, CH4 Rn,CO2, CH4 Fault Rupture Seismic shaking Damage to built environment Socioeconomic aftereffects Tectonic loading Stress accumulation Nucleation TIR anomalies Single–event cascade Foreshocks Aftershocks Time 0 EQ decade year month week day day week month year decade Short term

6. Typical radon variations before earthquake Typical radon variations, Turkey Kobe, Japan 1994-1995 Copala, Mexico Sept 1995 Typical radon gamma variations, Taiwan, 2014 Radon variations, Orange, CA, USA

7. Observations of pre-earthquake atmospheric signals Kobe, Japan 1994-1995 Copala, Mexico Sept 1995 Typical radon variations Typical Thermal Anomalies M7.9 Gujarat 2011 India Typical seismo –ionospheric anomalies NOAA/AVHRR Saraf et al (2003) NOAA/AVHRR Genzano et al (2005) MODIS/LST] Ouzounov(2004) Good Friday Alaska 27 March 1964, M9.2 Wenchuan, China 12 May 2008 Tohoku, Japan 2011

8. OLR anomalies Air temperature growth Latent heat release Humidity drop Ions hydration– formation of aerosol size particles LAIC model - Thermal interface Air ionization by -particles – product of radon decay Faults activation – permeability changes Gas discharges including radon emanation

9. Concept of Multi Sensor Networking (MSN) of pre-earthquake signals we are investigating

10. atmosphere total atmospheric transmittance and profile which depends on physical (mainly T(h) temperature profile) and chemical (mainly H2O, CO2, NH4) properties of the atmosphere surface TS: surfacetemperature eDl: spectralemissivity • Since ‘80s a candidate parametersuggesed by severalphysycalmodels • Global satellite coverage to measureit with high space-time continuitysince more than 30 years (continuationplanned for decades) Thermally emitted Earth’s radiation valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it valerio.tramutoli@unibas.it

11. Seismo-Ionospheric Precursor (SIP) observed by GPS TEC

12. Multi-layer concept for observation of Pre- Earthquake signals (AMaDEUS)

13. Sensor Web concept of multi- parameter analysis Interdisciplinary observations Information Synthesis Sensor Web Predictive knowledge Sensor Nodes Predictive models Historical Data Computing Interdisciplinary observations Interdisciplinary observations Interdisciplinary observations Interdisciplinary observations

14. Nepal M7.8 of Apr 25, 2015 and M7.3 of May 12, 2015 Thermal anomaly 04.23.2015 Nepal M7.8 of Apr 25, 2015 a b Thermal anomaly 05.02.2015Nepal M7.3 of May 12, 2015 d c

15. More, you can find here…

16. Points to take home 1/2 What we know so far? • We start detecting pre-Earthquake stage for major seismic events • We established continues radon measurements sensitive to seismicity in California, Taiwan and Greece • We revealed physical mechanisms that can explain why we observe positive and negative anomalies in ionosphere before major seismic events; • We developed several algorithms for automatic detection of thermal and ionospheric precursors • We start development of good statistics for atmospheric and ionospheric precursors for different areas of the globe (Taiwan, Japan) , including the Molchan diagram test • We discovered the synergetic effects between the ionospheric, thermal, meteorological, geochemical, electromagnetic precursors which made us able to create the LAIC model • We provided physical validation of atmospheric ionization effects with other natural events - dust storms, hurricanes, volcanoes

17. Points to take home 2/2 Still more work is needed: • We need more collaborative and validation work with seismologists on integrated short-term and middle term alerts; • We need 3D reconstruction of the electron concentration modification in ionosphere before earthquakes ; • We need cross-cutting numerical code to calculate the Electrical Field effects from ground surface up to the ionosphere, what we are working on now (few years necessary); • We need to preform un supervised real-time automatic monitoring of pre-earthquake effects using automatic identification; • We need to establish data streaming for multiparameter analysis of pre-earthquake phase; • We need more young scientists involved!

18. These publications clearly combat the theory that seismic events cannot be predicted. In fact 20 chapters of extended abstracts suggests the possibility that the multi disciplinary holistic approach of precursor observations potentially offers us an advancement of early warning, with the physical earthquake rupture being the final occurrence along the time line of the overall seismic event. What makes recent publications really pioneering in comparison  with others is that holistic approach, trying to present and bring together  the research from many  different fields of science:  geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science,  geochemistry , satellites and space science • Despite that these publications are only a snapshot of the ongoing research and not all leading scientists in the wider team have yet published  , credit must be recognised for the  unique source of information and citied literature of the  papers so far for the editors and the authors. • During the Ignite presentation we shall briefly touch on Key components of the multi disciplinary approach and explain how when combined these potentially will provide DRR with a significant tool in preparedness for larger earthquakes days and potentially weeks in advance. • Topics will include a review of the historical and recent progress; types of observations including Geochemical and Electromagnetic Observations; Atmospheric/ Thermal Signals; Ionosphere Processes; the combined Interdisciplinary approach to Earthquake Predictions • In summary this presentation offers an insight with many examples of cross-cutting science, into the significant advancement of understanding tectonic activities which generate the precursor anomalies and signatures of larger pending seismic events. Whilst further research and algorithms are established, this set of research papers referred to in this presentation undeniably opens serious discussion that seismic prediction is already feasible. The paradigm of disaster prevention could be very much advanced by this knowledge.

19. Describe why this presentation would be relevant for participants at the Global Platform There are a variety of delegates at the GP 2019 , who will potentially benefit by having the recent advances in seismic forecasting explained. • Researchers in the cross-fields of earthquake predictabilities. The presentation provides the historical progress of the past 40 years of observation and research of pre-earthquake phenomena. The interdisciplinary approach provide understanding of the cohesion within the technology development. • Graduate students and educators within Academia. Most of the described observations and science methods cannot be found in the traditional college text books. For educators this research has a great reference value exploring cross- disciplinary  education, which is a subliminal value of this project, offering inspirational research and periphery studies of resilience and sustainability in the urbanisation of society. • For Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Natural Geo Hazards specialists. The knowledge and insight provided within the referenced 20 papers is of great value for understanding the pre- earthquake rupture processes, as a potential path toward advancing earthquake early warning via reliable prediction prior to rupture. This research is the first of its kind to assemble and collate the components of a multi disciplinary approach to seismic prediction which supports the suggestion that it could became feasible in the near future. • Private industry will find this useful and essential to assist develop strategy for operating within high seismic risk environments, presently either not considered viable or classed fatalistic with only the present seconds of early warning within existing early warning alarm systems; • For Response and Resilience sectors for widening the development of auto technologies that protect critical infrastructure and physical preparedness that reduces response times within society potentially in advance of destructive shake events.

20. What is innovative about this presentation? This project research is innovative collating many examples of cross-cutting Geo, GIS and Terrestrial science, generating significant pioneering advancement of understanding tectonic activities which identify the precursor anomalies and signatures of larger pending seismic events. Whilst further research and algorithms are established, this pioneering set of research papers referred to in this presentation undeniably opens serious discussion that seismic prediction is already feasible. The publications clearly explain some of the precursor components for earthquake prediction and offer an insight into the multi disciplinary approach by globally accreted scientists both from within Seismology and from GIS disciplines. When combined it provides an pioneering integrated satellite and terrestrial framework for multi-parameter observations of regional anomalies indicating data signature formations which confirm the prediction data of a potential developing earthquake event. This innovative research now combats the theory that seismic events cannot be predicted. In fact 20 chapters of extended abstracts suggests the possibility that the multi disciplinary holistic approach of precursor observations potentially offers us an advancement of early warning, with the physical earthquake rupture being the final occurrence along the time line of the overall seismic event. The paradigm of disaster prevention could be very much advanced by this knowledge. What makes recent publications really pioneering in comparison  with others is the holistic approach, trying to present and bring together  the research from many  different fields of science:  geophysics, seismology, atmospheric science,  geochemistry , satellites and space science