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Report from the PDP working group

Report from the PDP working group Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Thomas Jung (until 2011), Shuhei Maeda, John Methven (since 2011), Mark Rodwell (since 2011), Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli WWRP-JSC Meeting April 2012. Main goals during last 5 years

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Report from the PDP working group

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  1. Report from the PDP working group Craig Bishop, Pat Harr, Thomas Jung (until 2011), Shuhei Maeda, John Methven (since 2011), Mark Rodwell (since 2011), Istvan Szunyogh, Olivier Talagrand, Heini Wernli WWRP-JSC Meeting April 2012

  2. Main goals during last 5 years • Contribute to preparation and evaluation of international field experiments • Raise awareness in PDP community of THORPEX research objectives and availability of datasets • Support development of research projects dedicated to PDP research • Establish linkage to WGNE on the issue of model uncertainties • Promote THORPEX through organization of summer schools, sessions at international conferences and dedicated workshops • Identify key topics for future PDP research

  3. PDP-related Workshops and Summer School Karlsruhe, May 2011: European Regional Meeting ECMWF, June 2011: Sub-seasonal prediction (with PDP WG evening meeting) Banff (Canada), July 2011: Summer school Reading, 18-20 June 2012: PDP WG meeting

  4. Banff summer school • “Advanced Mathematical Methods to Study Atmospheric Dynamical Processes and Predictability” • 10-15 July 2011 • 90 applicants; 34 graduate students and young postdocs have been selected from all continents • Lecturers: Bishop, Durran, Gauthier, Lynch, Methven, Ott, Szunyogh, Talagrand, Wernli • Topics: • history of NWP • basic principles (PDEs, numerics, balance concepts, PV) • data assimilation (4Dvar, EnKF) • predictability and ensemble forecasting • probabilisitic forecasts

  5. Banff summer school July 2011

  6. PDP-related research projects / activities • DIAMET (UK), since autumn 2010 • - Field experiments in 2011/2012 • PANDOWAE (Germany, CH), second phase 2011-2014 • Further evaluation of T-PARC field experiment • Use of YOTC and TIGGE data sets • Field experiment „T-NAWDEX-Falcon“ in October 2012 • Links to HYMEX (see presentation by V. Ducrocq) • Links to WGNE (to be intensified)

  7. DIAMET DIAbatic influences on MEsoscale structures in extratropicalsTorms Geraint Vaughan, Manchester PI John Methven, Reading PI Ian Renfrew, East Anglia PI Doug Parker, Leeds PI Plus strong linkage to UK MetOffice!

  8. DIAMET Aims • To describe the structure, origin and dynamical consequences of diabatically-generated flow anomalies (on the mesoscale – e.g., fronts). • To make a link between the simulation of mesoscale structure and forecasts of weather (high winds and precipitation). • To investigate the implications for predictability and the skill of numerical weather prediction • Especially convection-resolving forecasts (1-2 days)

  9. DIAMET flight summary

  10. IOP5: Radar + 29 hr UKV forecast

  11. Obs: Whitworth Observatory, ManchesterVery tight cold front with 4 tornados confirmed(Matthew Clark, Met Office) Wind speed Pressure Temperature Wind direction Precipitation Dew pt

  12. DIAMET IOP-8 NOAA polar orbiting satellite Visible channel 12:35UT 8/12/11

  13. Wind speed (m s-1) to SW of cyclone centre Dropsondes 11-17 NAE model forecast Point B Cyclone centre

  14. PANDOWAE:Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European sector • Research group funded by German Research Foundation (DFG) since 2008; lead-PI: Sarah Jones • First phase (2008-2011) • 8 PhD projects • Now second phase • (2011-14) • Research themes: • Rossby waves • Diabatic processes • - Ensembles

  15. T-PARC ET of TY Jangmi: strong intensification of jetstream in TC outflow 00 UTC 30 Sept 2008 MTSAT water vapour winds Lidar wind measurements Falcon track onboard Falcon

  16. T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 Andreas Schäfler, Andreas Dörnbrack, Hans Schlager (DLR) Maxi Böttcher, Christian Grams, Heini Wernli (ETH) Partners within PANDOWAE research group

  17. T-NAWDEX-Falcon Focus on warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over Europe • Schäfler et al. 2011 (QJRMS) • Analysis of Lidar data since 2002 for lucky encounters with WCBs • Analysis errors of humidity at low levels • Investigation of impact in forecast of WCB, cyclone structure and downstream weather • Joos and Wernli 2012 (QJRMS) • Detailed analysis of microphysical processes modifying PV in WCB Grams et al. 2011 (QJRMS) The key role of diabatic processes in modifying the upper-tropospheric jet stream: a North Atlantic case-study

  18. T-NAWDEX-Falcon Main objectives • Lagrangian flights during vertical transport in a WCB with use of in-situ observations (H2O, selected chemical tracers) and dropsondes • Perform a tracer experiment to tag air masses • - release artificial tracer in boundary layer of WCB • collect tracer in WCB ascent and outflow • Investigate latent heating in WCB in warm / mixed-phase cloud and compare with model simulations • Time period: 1-19 October 2012 (i.e., parallel to HYMEX SOP)

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