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An alternative perspective to climate change

An alternative perspective to climate change . L. De Wet. INTRODUCTION. To summarize what we have learnt so far: Climate change Change/shift in the long-term average. There is no evidence of such a shift.

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An alternative perspective to climate change

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  1. An alternative perspectivetoclimate change L. De Wet

  2. INTRODUCTION • To summarize what we have learnt so far: • Climate change • Change/shift in the long-term average • There is no evidence of such a shift. • Observations of sunspot cycle data (1700-2006) and river-inflows all point to a cycle of 11 years of dry period followed by 11 years of wet period (Tyson, 1987 and Alexander, 2008).

  3. INTRODUCTION • From the (cyclic) data we can predict a dry period from 2009-2016. • Climate is variable and includes extreme events, but causes of climate change are not mainly anthropogenic. Natural variability also has a part to play. • The “non-skeptics” are of the opinion that global warming will continue and Ta will not come down again, but there are many other scientists and “sceptics” that say there is a global cooling taking place.

  4. INTRODUCTION • The sceptics have proven that radiation influences global surface temperature and not greenhouse gas emissions. • Suggestion: Look at the FACTS, use your logic and decide on which side of the fence you will stand.

  5. Locally developed climate model verified (Alexander, 2007)

  6. Locally developed climate model verified (Alexander, 2007) • Results from Alexander reference: • Figure 1 – Model is based on 21-year periodicity in the data. • There is an increase in rainfall relative to the average (2006-2009). • Publications by climate change scientists however maintain there is a decrease in rainfall in this region. • Observed (max. and min.) annual rainfall (Figure 1) and observed river flow (Figure 2) during past years (8,9,10,11,12,13) is lower than the historical record (yrs 1,2,4,6). • Climate change literature claims that GW will → increases in droughts and floods – this has not been observed as yet.

  7. Locally developed climate model verified (Alexander, 2007) • Figure 2 – The mean values of the predictions for the next ten years (2008 – 2017 or years 14 – 23) are all (except 2007/2008) less than the long-term mean annual runoff (MAR). • ------------------------------------------

  8. CLIMATE CHANGE NOTES • SEE OTHER NOTES (2-CC notes 2009.doc) & ref on I-learn ----------------------------------------------

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