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OTR Results

OTR Results. ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013. Introduction. Version 1.65 of ERTAC EGU Continental US (CONUS) Inputs Future year is 2020 Model run conducted by VADEQ Results are based on: Known shutdowns/controls/new units as of Jan-Feb 2013 AEO 2013/NERC 2012

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OTR Results

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  1. OTR Results ERTAC EGU –RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013

  2. Introduction • Version 1.65 of ERTAC EGU Continental US (CONUS) Inputs • Future year is 2020 • Model run conducted by VADEQ • Results are based on: • Known shutdowns/controls/new units as of Jan-Feb 2013 • AEO 2013/NERC 2012 • First version of the ERTAC EGU projection code • Results are focused on the OTR+VA • 11 full OTC member states, DC, and all of Virginia

  3. Current ERTAC Region Map

  4. ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 FF Gen. (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  5. Top 25 Generators in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  6. Gas-fired Generation Deficit Units (2020) • “Generation Deficit Units” reflect demand met through unanticipated units • Extra gas capacity needed; mostly during peak demand periods • No coal, oil, or boiler gas GDUs created ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  7. Coal Unit Underutilzation(2020) • Some unused capacity would be reserve capacity, downtime, etc. • Only RFCW had units with utilization above 70% • High level of underutilization implies that there may be unaccounted for retirements ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  8. Preliminary Conclusions • Overall decreased demand projected for fossil fuel generation in Eastern USA • Larger reduction in fossil fuel generation projected in North East/Mid-Atlantic • Shift to natural gas use projected in nearly every state in the North East • Some uncertainty as to where the projected peak growth in gas generation will come from • Ample projected coal capacity may allow more retirements

  9. ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 SOX (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  10. Top 25 SOX Emitters in 2020 Homer City has plan approval to install scrubbers ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  11. Top 25 SOX Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  12. ERTAC EGU 2007/2020 NOX (OTR+VA) ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  13. Top 25 NOX Emitters in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  14. Top 25 Annual NOX Rates (lbs/mmbtu) in 2020 ERTAC EGU CONUS v1.65 2020 Results

  15. Questions? XKCD.com

  16. ERTAC EGU Next Steps ERTAC EGU – RESULTS WEBINAR May 16, 2013

  17. Next Steps

  18. Complete Conversion to SMOKE Ready Inputs • The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) is the emissions modeling tool used to convert inventories into modeling inputs • ERTAC EGU results are not in the SMOKE input format • A small workgroup is currently testing and improving data inputs for the conversion • OTC/MANE-VU will model air quality using ERTAC EGU outputs for their region – results should be available Fall 2013

  19. Potential Sensitivity Runs for ERTAC EGU

  20. Complete Stakeholder Outreach Process • 5/20 - In person meeting at LADCO offices (full) • 6/28 - Comments due on version 1.65 from stakeholders • Comments should be sent to regional contact or comments@marama.org

  21. Other Next Steps • Documentation of runs and growth rate development needs to be completed to ease reproducibility of results • The base year needs to be updated to a more recent year, with 2011 being a good choice since it is a National Emission Inventory year • Several improvements to the code’s functionality have been discussed throughout the process and in the long term enhancement will be made if funding is secured

  22. Questions? BiLK_Thorn @ flickr

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