Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale

1. Watch in slide show mode to observe (modest) animation. comments questions: dan.kahan@yale.edu papers, etc: www.culturalcognition.net

2. www.culturalcognition.net Thinking Scientifically About Climate Science Communication Dan M. Kahan Yale University &many others

3. Evidence-based Climate Science Communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one • 3. The solution

5. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater perceived risk (z-score) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

6. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Science Illiteracy & Bounded Rationality Greater High Sci. litearcy/System 2 (“slow”) perceived risk (z-score) Low Sci. litearcy/System 1 (“fast”) Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

7. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Greater Risk PIT prediction PIT prediction actual variance actual variance perceived risk (z-score) Lesser Risk low high low high Science literacy Numeracy U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 732-35 (2012).

8. Evidence-based Climate Science Communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one • 3. The solution 

9. Evidence-based Climate Science Communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one:motivated reasoning • 3. The solution 

10. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Hierarchy hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians Individualism Communitarianism egalitarian individualists egalitarian communitarians Egalitarianism

12. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

13. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear hierarchical individualists hierarchical communitarians Guns/Gun Control Individualism Communitarianism Environment: climate, nuclear Guns/Gun Control egalitarian individualists egalitarian communitarians Egalitarianism

14. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

15. Climate Change High Risk (science conclusive) Low Risk (science inconclusive)

16. Geologic Isolation of Nuclear Wastes High Risk (not safe) Low Risk (safe)

17. Concealed Carry Laws High Risk (Increase crime) Low Risk (Decrease Crime)

18. Source: Kahan, D.M., Jenkins-Smith, H. & Braman, D. Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus. J. Risk Res. 14, 147-74(2011).

19. Featured scientist is a knowledgeable and credible expert on ... Egalitarian Communitarian More Likely to Agree Hierarchical Individualist More Likely to Agree Pct. Point Difference in Likelihood of Selecting Response 60% 40% 20% 0 20% 40% 60% 54% Climate Change 72% 22% Nuclear Power 31% 58% Concealed Carry 61% N = 1,500. Derived from ordered-logit regression analysis, controlling for demographic and political affiliation/ideology variables. Culture variables set 1 SD from mean on culture scales. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence

20. Cultural Cognition Worldviews Risk Perception Key Low Risk High Risk Hierarchy Environment: climate, nuclear Gays military/gay parenting hierarchical communitarians Guns/Gun Control Abortion procedure compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Individualism Communitarianism Gays military/gay parenting Environment: climate, nuclear Abortion procedure Guns/Gun Control egalitarian individualists compulsory psychiatric treatment HPV Vaccination Egalitarianism

21. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Cultural variance conditional on sci. literacy/numeracy? Cultural Variance Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

22. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” PIT prediction: Culture as heuristic substitute Greater Egalitarian Communitarian Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy Hierarchical Individualist Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

23. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

24. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” Actual interaction of culture & sci-lit/num... Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

25. “How much risk do you believe climate change poses to human health, safety, or prosperity?” POLARIZATION INCREASES as scil-lit/numeracy increases Greater HighSci lit/numeracy EgalComm LowSci/lit numeracy EgalComm Low Sci lit/numeracy perceived risk (z-score) High Sci lit/numeracy LowSci lit/num. HierarcIndivid HighSci lit/numeracy Hierarch Individ Lesser U.S. general population survey, N = 1,500. Scale 0 (“no risk at all”) to 10 (“extreme risk”), M = 5.7, SD = 3.4. CIs reflect 0.95 level of confidence. source: Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication (2012), doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

26. Evidence-based climate science communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one:motivated reasoning • 3. The solution: evidence-based science communication   • Methods: from lab models to field experiments • Location: locally (adaptation)

27. Lab models …

28. Field experiments: Observe & measure

29. Evidence-based climate science communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one:motivated reasoning • 3. The solution: evidence-based science communication   • Methods: from lab models to field experiments • Location: locally (adaptation)

30. Local adaptation science communication

31. Evidence-based climate science communication • 1. A plausible but incorrect explanation: the public irrationality thesis (PIT) • 2. Another, better one:motivated reasoning • 3. The solution: evidence-based science communication    • Methods: from lab models to field experiments • Location: locally (adaptation)

32. Cultural Cognition Cat Scan Experiment Go to www.culturalcognition.net!