1 / 11

Comments on Hatton and Thomas, “Labour Markets in the Interwar Period”

Comments on Hatton and Thomas, “Labour Markets in the Interwar Period”. Chris Minns Economic History Department LSE. Hatton and Thomas. Comprehensive description of UK/US unemployment patterns, 1920-1939 Overview review of existing literature (I learnt a lot!). The evidence.

csilla
Download Presentation

Comments on Hatton and Thomas, “Labour Markets in the Interwar Period”

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Comments on Hatton and Thomas, “Labour Markets in the Interwar Period” Chris Minns Economic History Department LSE

  2. Hatton and Thomas • Comprehensive description of UK/US unemployment patterns, 1920-1939 • Overview review of existing literature (I learnt a lot!)

  3. The evidence • 1890-1913: Average UK/US unemployment about 6 percent • 1920-1939: Average UK/US unemployment about 10 percent • UK hit hardest in 1920/21 , US 1929/33 • Long-term unemployment follows shocks in both markets

  4. The argument • Labour market policies and institutions shape rigidities and unemployment experiences • UK: hours cut, increase in union density, changes in wage setting, unemployment insurance rise • US: New Deal-linked supply-side changes, 1933-forwards

  5. The argument / 2 • Intermediate level of rigidities move UK to higher equilibrium unemployment post ‘20/21 • Higher level of rigidities hold up US unemployment, post ’33 • Lesson for history: application of ideas from literature on contemporary unemployment to inter-war setting

  6. Lessons from history? • “Shock and doldrums” in UK, 1920-1937 more relevant to present-day labour markets?

  7. Lessons from history? / 2 • Does experience of 1920s/1930s confirm or revise current views on how rigidities shape unemployment? (e.g. Nickell JEP 1997)

  8. North American Unemployment, 1930s

  9. Canada • Similar unemployment to the US • Expansion of relief spending post-1930 • But “Canadian New Deal” derailed by Liberal election victory in 1935, ruled unconstitutional in 1937

  10. Lessons from history / 3 • How bad will long-term unemployment be? • 1920s/30s evidence suggests human capital atrophies quickly with time out • Is general human capital relatively important deeper into skill distribution today? • Does migration mute potential long-term unemployment?

  11. Lessons from history / 4 • Long-term unemployment engage electioneering politicians • Labour: Future Job Fund, LTU aged 18-24. • Lib Dems: top-up payments for 18-24s on work placement schemes • Tories: The Work Programme – picks up under 25s at 6 months, expansion of apprenticeship

More Related