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Join the Nowcasting and Very Short Range Forecasting Symposium in Toulousse, France from 5 to 9 September 2005 to learn about multi-dimensional applications of nowcasting in Malawi. Explore the climate of Malawi, forecasting methods, uses of nowcasting, areas that need nowcasting, requirements, problems faced, and the way forward. Don't miss this opportunity to enhance your knowledge of nowcasting.
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8.21 NOWCASTING AND VERY SHORT RANGE FORECASTING SYMPOSIUM TOULUSSE FRANCE 5 TO 9 SEPTEMBER 2005 MULTI-DIMENSIONAL APPLICATIONS OF NOWCASTING IN MALAWI LUCY MTILATILA Department of Meteorological Services Malawi
OUTLINE:- • INTRODUCTION • CLIMATE OF MALAWI • FORECASTING METHODS IN MALAWI • USES OF NOWCASTING IN MALAWI • FIELDS THAT NEED NOWCASTING • NOWCASTING REQUIREMENTS • PROBLEMS FACED BY MALAWI IN NOWCASTING • WAY FORWARD • CONCLUSION
1. INTRODUCTION • Malawi is located within 8. 5 to 17 degrees East and 32.8 to 36 degrees South. • Malawi boarders with Mozambique to the South and East; Tanzania to the North; Zambia to the West. • Malawi is a country with diverse resources and most of these resources are weathersensitive. • The country boasts of the third largest lake in Africa • Activities on the lake include yachting, recreation, marine and fishing. • The country heavily depends on rain fed agriculture.
Some activities that areweather sensitive are aviation, energy, small-scale businesses and water resources industry. • Most users of weather have a perception that weather is a threat to their operations and not a resource in their planning.
2 CLIMATE OF MALAWI • Being in the tropics, Malawi experiences tropical climate with dry seasons during the months of May to November and rainy season during the other months particularly December to March. • Average annual precipitation ranges from 700mm over lowlying areas to 2000mm over high grounds. • Temperature ranges are from 14 to 24 degrees Celsius (57 to 75 degrees Fahrenheit) between November and April to 19 to 32 degrees Celsius (66 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit) between May and October. • Tropical cyclones also affect Malawi during summer • Fog in winter
3 FORECASTING METHODS IN MALAWI • 3.1 Weather forecasts are based on:- • Analysis of observations, • Satellite imagery, • Numerical products from ECMWF and WAFC. • 3.2 Dissemination Of Weather Forecasts • Radio, television and newspapers • E-mail • Telephone • Fax • SSB
USES OF NOWCASTING IN MALAWI • Nowcasting is a preliquiste for short term planning in sectors like: • Aviation • Marine, fisheries and yachting– mwera (strong southeasterly winds) warnings are issued on Lake Malawi • Tea and sugar estates- for planning purposes • Public events • General public in times of tropical cyclones
5 AREAS THAT NOWCASTING NEED TO BE APPLIED IN MALAWI • Warnings in terms of severe weather such as localised thunderstorms. • Small-scale farmers and businesses
6 NOWCASTING REQUIREMENTS • Nowcasting and warnings should be timely and reliable • This can be achieved when all the required tools for nowcasting are available • These include • Primary data user system • Weather radar • Numerical Weather Predictions with high resolution.
7 PROBLEMS FACED BY MALAWI IN NOWCASTING • Lack of mesoscale models. • Lack of weather radar.
8 WAY FORWARD FOR MALAWI • The other important tool which will help Malawi much in nowcasting is Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) that will be operational in the near future. • Installation/ maintainance of weather radars. • Using Mesoscale numerical prediction models. • Public awareness on response measures.
9. CONCLUSSION • There are many sectors in Malawi that are benefiting from nowcasting. • There are areas that are needed to be improved so that nowcasting should be more reliable. • Improvement of communication is a necessity when it comes to nowcasting and warnings. • Public awareness is needed in response measures and also on how they can benefit from this nowcasting.
