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Overview of the South Australian Labour Market

Overview of the South Australian Labour Market. Presenter: Ivan Neville Branch Manager, Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch. How is the South Australian labour market performing ? Selected indicators over the last year.

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Overview of the South Australian Labour Market

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  1. Overview of the South Australian Labour Market Presenter: Ivan Neville Branch Manager, Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch

  2. How is the South Australian labour market performing?Selected indicators over the last year In line with a softening in labour market conditions at the national level… Employment - up by 2,000 (or 0.2 per cent) Unemployment - rose by 5,900 (or 11.7 per cent) Unemployment rate - 6.5 per cent, up by 0.6 percentage points Participation rate -62.0 per cent, down by 0.1 percentage points State Final Demand - increased by 0.6 per cent Redundancies - 5,910 announced so far this year (56 per cent State government)

  3. Internet vacancies in South Australia Source: Department of Employment, Internet Vacancy Index, September 2014.

  4. How does South Australia compare nationally?

  5. Employment growth by age and genderSouth Australia, Year to September 2014

  6. Composition of employment growth by gender South Australia, Year to September 2014

  7. The changing nature of industry employment in South AustraliaIndustry share of employment (%)

  8. Underemployment rising and above national average

  9. Youth unemployment since the GFCHigher rates across most States and Territories

  10. Youth disengagementStates and Territories, September 2014

  11. Unemployed youth less likely to move into employmentProbability of transitioning from unemployment to employment (15-24 year olds)

  12. Higher education and VET graduate outcomes weakerEmployment outcomes have weakened since 2008 • In 2013, 71.3% of bachelor degree graduates found full-time employment after graduating • Lowest level since 1993 • Large numbers working in lower skilled occupations or fewer hours than they would like • 78.2% of VET graduates found employment in 2013 • Down by 4.2% pts since 2008 • The Department of Education projects that in 2017-18, around 30% of bachelor degree graduates will still be seeking full-time employment four months after completing their degree

  13. Long-term unemployment on the riseLong-term (52+ weeks) and total unemployed persons (‘000) in South Australia

  14. Youth share of LTU has increasedBurden of LTU disproportionately felt by 15-24 year olds in South Australia • 15-24 year olds comprise just 15.8 per cent of the civilian 15+ population, • yet make up 27.6 per cent of all long-term unemployed persons

  15. Shifts in LTU incidence in recent yearsLong-term unemployment share of total unemployment (%), South Australia

  16. Unemployed remain so for too longUnemployment duration (weeks) by age group, South Australia

  17. Regional hotspots

  18. Labour market outcomes for people with disabilities15-64 year olds, South Australia • 21.5 per cent of South Australians live with a disability (18.5 per cent nationally) • Labour market outcomes remain considerably poorer for people with disabilities • The number of employed people with a disability has fallen by 3.3 per cent since 2009

  19. Going forward, conditions are expected to remain subdued • A number of downside risks remain to these forecasts: • Faster than expected withdrawal by Holden and Toyota • Defence contracts potentially going overseas • Ongoing business and consumer caution • Rate and size of fall in mining investment

  20. Projected employment growth in South Australia- selected industries, five years to November 2018 Source: Department of Employment, 2014 Employment Projections to November 2018.

  21. Conclusion • Labour market conditions currently subdued • Treasury forecasts and forward indicators suggest soft labour market outlook • Future labour market challenges • Long-term unemployed • Youth • Ageing population/ declining participation • Mining transition from construction to production phase • Ongoing structural change

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