1 / 11

M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams,

Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX. M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams, H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser,

cybill
Download Presentation

M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams,

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Global Chemical Weather Forecasts for Field Campaign Planning: Predictions and Observations of Large-Scale Phenomena during MINOS, CONTRACE, and INDOEX M. G. Lawrence, P. J. Rasch, R. von Kuhlmann, J. Williams, H. Fischer, M. de Reus, J. Lelieveld, P. J. Crutzen, H. Huntrieser, J. Heland, A. Stohl, C. Forster, M. Schultz, P. Stier, R. R. Dickerson IGAC2002 Conference Crete, 23 September 2002

  2. Meteorological Weather Forecasts Forward and Backward Trajectories Flight Planning Stratospheric Chemical Weather Forecasts Regional Tropospheric Global Tropospheric

  3. The Chemical Weather Forecast System • MATCH-MPIC • Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry • NMHC Chemistry (up to C5 HCs) • 56 Species, 140 Reactions • Online wet & dry dep, j-vals, emissions • Meteorology: NCEP AVN • Diagnosed H2O, Clouds, Convection • Near real time (NRT) run • 3-day Forecasts

  4. Field Campaigns Overview • INDOEX (February-March, 1999) • Forecasted flights: 3 • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73 • MINOS (August, 2001) • Forecasted flights: 5 • Objectives: European Outflow, Asian Monsoon Plume • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76 • CONTRACE (November, 2001) • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part) • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80 • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2

  5. Field Campaigns Overview • INDOEX (February-March, 1999) • Forecasted flights: 3 • Objectives: Indian Outflow, NH/SH difference at ITCZ • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.74, rFcst = 0.73 • MINOS (August, 2001) • Forecasted flights: 5 • Objectives: European Outflow,Asian Monsoon Plume • CO Comparison: rNRT = 0.75, rFcst = 0.76 • CONTRACE (November, 2001) • Forecasted flights: 3 (2 2-part) • Objectives: European Outflow, North American Plumes • CO Comparison:rNRT = 0.82, rFcst = 0.80 • Others: ITCT 2k2, PEACE-B, SMOCC • Planned: UTOPIHAN, CONTRACE 2

  6. MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume 100 250 500 Pressure (hPa) 750 1000 90N 0 90S 180W 90W 0 90E 180E

  7. MINOS Asian Monsoon Plume

  8. MATCH-MPIC Forecasts => Also similar CO tracer forecasts from ECHAM

  9. Asian Plume Observations => Also similar CO tracer results from ECHAM

  10. MATCH-MPIC Output: Total CO (NRT) Total CO (2-day Fcst) Asian CO (N+S) (30 Sept) (1 July) Asian Plume Frequency 100W:9% Crete:23% 100E:42% 100S:33%

  11. Conclusions • Global chemical weather forecasting works well • CO and regional CO tracers most valuable so far • r  0.75 for CO in all campaigns • Assimilation not required for CO • Global => intercontinental transport • Southern Asian monsoon plume (MINOS) • North American outflow (CONTRACE) • More info: • http://www.mpch-mainz.mpg.de/~lawrence/forecasts.html • interactive plotting system • Lawrence et al., submitted to Atmos. Chem. Phys.

More Related