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New England Economic Partnership

New England Economic Partnership. Ross Gittell NEEP, Vice President and Forecast Manager James R.Carter Professor University of New Hampshire. WHAT IS NEEP?. NEEP was founded in 1971 to enhance understanding of the six-state New England economy A member-supported, non-profit organization

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New England Economic Partnership

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  1. New England Economic Partnership Ross Gittell NEEP, Vice President and Forecast Manager James R.Carter Professor University of New Hampshire

  2. WHAT IS NEEP? • NEEP was founded in 1971 to enhance understanding of the six-state New England economy • A member-supported, non-profit organization • Providing objective economic analyses and forecasts. • Board of directors and 7 forecast managers, all of whom serve NEEP on a volunteer basis, include some of New England's leading regional economists and economic development specialists. • NEEP member companies represent a broad range of industries and disciplines, and include financial institutions, utilities, insurance providers, government agencies, and academic institutions.

  3. WHAT IS NEEP? • Bi-annual forecasts of six state and regional economies. • Annual metropolitan area forecasts of seven major metro areas in New England. • Forecasts of state product, employment (by NAICS industry classification), housing, demographics, etc.. • Quarterly forecasts (4 years) and history. • Written analysis and data...

  4. Examples of the New England forecast, Fall 2003

  5. New England regional economy • Regional economy expected to improve but grow at rate below US average • Manufacturing will continue to decline, even more pronounced percentage decline in region than in nation • Even the fastest growing sectors in the regional economy (Education and Health Services, Professional and Business Services) are expected to grow at rates below US average growth in these sectors • NH expected to be strongest performing state • Massachusetts economy expected to improve and contribute to regional outlook end of 2003 and 2004

  6. Gross Regional Product/Output • Regional economy is slowly improving…. • Annualized growth rate expected to be 3.2 percent in 4th Q 2003 ….while modest, this is the highest growth rate since 3rd Q 2000, or in 3+ years • First quarter 2004 growth rate expected to match US at 4.1 percent • Then regional growth is expected to exceed US average growth and peak at 4.7 percent in 2nd Q 2004 • After that growth is expected to moderate and remain below 4 percent and below US average … much slower growth than late 1990s, of above 9 percent

  7. The region is expected to have below the US average overall growth in economic output except for mid 2004

  8. Employment Outlookgrowth returns, but …. • Employment growth returned in 2nd Q of 2003 after 8 consecutive quarters of decline • Employment growth expected to remain below 1 percent till 2nd Q of 2004 • Expected to peak at 1.9 percent in 1st Q 2005 • Then decline to 1 percent per annum

  9. Regional employment growth will lag output growth and lag and be below US employment growth

  10. Highest percentage employment growth expected in Health & Education and Professional & Business Services. But below US growth in all sectors

  11. NH Strongest Overall Economy in Region, followed by CT, RI, MA, VT and Maine

  12. Total Employment Ave Annual Growth 2002-2007.. Only NH is expected to have employment growth at US average

  13. Housing prices expected to moderate but not fall….

  14. Detailed Examples of Forecast and Data available…. Massachusetts and Boston metro area

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