Economic Survey of the Russian Federation Seminar hosted by the Higher School of Economics and the Russian Academy of Economy and Civil Service, Moscow 12 December 2011. Geoff Barnard and Tatiana Lysenko Desk Economists, Russia/South Africa Desk Economics Department
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Economic Survey of the Russian Federation Seminar hosted by the Higher School of Economics and the Russian Academy of Economy and Civil Service, Moscow12 December 2011
Geoff Barnard and Tatiana Lysenko
Desk Economists, Russia/South Africa Desk
Strengthening the fiscal framework
to enhance resilience to external
shocks and safeguard sustainability
Percentage of GDP
General government expenditure, each month as percentage of annual total
● Restore a fiscal rule like the one in the Budget Code.
● Add a rule restricting the annual increase in total expenditure in real terms to some ceiling.
● Develop expertise on the cyclical adjustment of non-oil revenues. Publish more detailed information on the underlying fiscal position, highlighting uncertainties.
● Set up an independent fiscal council.
● Consider including a contingency reserve in the budget.
● Consider transferring privatisation proceeds to the National Welfare Fund.
● Raise pensionable ages.
Moving to a new framework
for monetary policy
*11 OECD banks for which assessment was made
Stepping up preparations for inflation targeting
Improving monetary policy transparency
Dealing with large-scale capital inflows
If inflows lead to excessive pressure for rouble appreciation, consider a range of policy responses: