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Improvements to the SHIPS , LGEM, RII and MC Probability Models for 2011

Improvements to the SHIPS , LGEM, RII and MC Probability Models for 2011. Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS Andrea Schumacher, Robert DeMaria, CIRA/CSU John Kaplan NOAA/HRD Buck Sampson, NRL Informal Briefing to NHC June 22, 2011. Outline. SHIPS/LGEM Updated coefficients

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Improvements to the SHIPS , LGEM, RII and MC Probability Models for 2011

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  1. Improvements to the SHIPS, LGEM, RII and MC Probability Modelsfor 2011 Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS Andrea Schumacher, Robert DeMaria, CIRA/CSU John Kaplan NOAA/HRD Buck Sampson, NRL Informal Briefing to NHC June 22, 2011

  2. Outline • SHIPS/LGEM • Updated coefficients • Temperature advection predictor • HFIP stream 1.5 ensemble version • Storm type prediction • Rapid Intensity Index • Updated coefficients • JHT and GOES-R experimental versions • Deterministic RII guidance tool in the ATCF • Monte Carlo Windspeed probabilities • Improved wind radii interpolation • Hurricane Probability Landfall Applications v1.5 • GOES-R proving ground products

  3. Storm Type Classification • Estimate of storm type on SHIPS text file • Tropical, Extra-tropical, Sub-tropical • Structure changes during ET transition • Based on Hart (2003), Jones et al (2006) • Lower SST, transition to cold core, asymmetic convection, increased forward speed, low level temperature gradients and cold advection • Hart “phase space” variables • B = 0-500 km, 600 to 900 hPa thickness asymmetry • VLT= 0-500 km, 600 to 900 hPa thermal wind • VUT= 0-500 km, 600 to 300 hPa thermal wind

  4. SHIPS Storm Classification Algorithm • 1982-2010 SHIPS cases with GOES data • Storm type from NHC best track • 3-class discriminant analysis • Select predictors with differences in sub-sample means

  5. Storm Type Discriminators • SST • 150 hPa T • Vertical instability parameter • 700-850 hPa T gradient from thermal wind eqn.** • r=500 km symmetric 500 hPa tangential wind* • r=500 km symmetric 300 hPa tangential wind* • 850-200 hPa shear • 0-500 km average 200 hPameridional wind • Northward component of translational velocity • Translational velocity magnitude** • 50-200 km %GOES pixels colder than -10oC • 0-30 km average GOES IR brightness T *Similar to Bob Hart VUT parameter ** Similar to Bob Hart B parameter

  6. Normalized Discriminant Function Coefficients

  7. Verification at t=0(3 by 3 Contingency Table)

  8. Modified SHIPS Text File

  9. Storm Type Forecasts for Earl (2010)

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