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DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONFERENCE WARSZAWA, 15-16.10.2015

Extreme stages of the soil wetness conditions over Poland: dynamics and risks. Urszula Somorowska Wydział Geografii i Studiów Regionalnych Uniwersytet Warszawski usomorow@uw.edu.pl. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONFERENCE WARSZAWA, 15-16.10.2015.

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DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONFERENCE WARSZAWA, 15-16.10.2015

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  1. Extreme stages of the soil wetness conditions over Poland: dynamics and risks Urszula Somorowska Wydział Geografii i Studiów Regionalnych Uniwersytet Warszawski usomorow@uw.edu.pl DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONFERENCE WARSZAWA, 15-16.10.2015

  2. Extreme stages of the soil wetness conditions over Poland: dynamics and risks Outline 1. Whyimportantis the SoilWater ? 2. Questionsaddressed, data and methods 3. Seasonal and interannualvariability of SoilWater Occurance of extremewetnessconditions in particularyears SoilDroughtPropagation DISASTER RISK REDUCTION CONFERENCE WARSZAWA, 15-16.10.2015

  3. Background…importance of subsurfacewaterstoragestudy Monthly anomaly of soil water storage over Europe in selected years August 2003 --- drought conditions over Poland August 2010 --- wet conditions over Poland Droughts and heat waves are a major hazard for food & water security, impactinghuman& ecosystemhealth. Over the last decades, heat waves and rainlessperiodshave been observed across different regions of the world, with several locations, including Poland, experiencing soil moisture deficits. Orth, Seneviratne, 2015

  4. Mainobjective The main objective is to infer dynamics of soilwater storage over Polandusing selectedsoilwater storage indicator. Studyis based on terrestrial water storage dataobtained from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Mean monthly spatial patterns of soil water storage were generatedover Poland Temporalevolution of at a dailytimescale was evaluated for central Poland

  5. Questionsaddressed • (1) whatisspatio-temporalevolution of SWS? • (2) how shallow subsurface water storage is depleting in summer in respond to meteorological drought ? • Case studyfocused on territory of Poland • Longtimeseries of SWS • At least of moderatespatial resolution

  6. Temporalevolution of SWS isdetected bygroundmeasurements, satteliteimages, LSM Soil moisture groundmonitoring stations are still scarce, and the existingsystems are not standardized in terms of measurement techniques, data format, access, etc Satellite based remote sensing imageshave the potential to overcome the observational gap of monitoring terrestrial waterstoragechangeshoweverlong term data areusually not available. Land Surface Modelsprovideslong-term simulations of land Surface stages, includingSoilMoisture as anindicator. GLDAS - Global Land Data Assimilation System

  7. GLDAS Dane pozyskane z systemu GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) w ramach projektu NEWS (ang. NASA’s Energy and WaterCycleStudy)

  8. Data and methods GLDAS data Spatial data • Noah model : • FourSoillayers: 0-10cm, 10-40cm, 40-100cm, 100-200cm • Years: 2000-2015 • 0.25x0.25, ~~23km • Temporalresolution monthly, 3h • Digital resources (MPHP) GEOPROCESSING of Data using ArcGIS 10.2 tools and iterative models In Model Builder.

  9. Seasonal and interannual dynamics • Recharge of the soil water appears usually in months from October till February, whereas from March till September depletion of soil water storage is observed. • In particular years this usual rhythm might be disturbed by meteorological conditions. • In the examined period, the driest conditions were detected in August 2003, July 2006 and along the year 2014, and in 2015 (partiallyevaluated). Especially wet conditions appeared in May and June 2010.

  10. Meanmonthlysoilwaterstoragesoillayer 0-50cm, November-April

  11. Meanmonthlysoilwaterstoragesoillayer 0-50cm, May-October

  12. Meanmonthlysoilwaterstorage2000-2014, blackline, Poland Kolorem czarnym oznaczono wartości średnie miesięczne dla wielolecia.

  13. Droughtcriterion, soilmoisturepercentilevalue of 20%central Poland

  14. Daily SWS, central Poland, 2000-2015droughtcriterion of soilmoisture – red line

  15. SWS 0-50 cm, 2003, 2006, 2010

  16. Conclusions (1) • GLDAS provides global access to soil moisture data. Application of such a data significantly refines the image of spatial structure of soil water storage, when comparing to ground sparce information. • Monthly time series show a contrasting response of terrestrial water storage at interannual scale, reflecting impact of variable precipitation recharge and summer heat waves. • Signals of drought appear across the whole country, however most often they occur in lowlands from east, through central Poland, to the west.

  17. Conclusions (2) • Seasonalcyclecomprisesrecharge of SWS in monthsOctober-February/March and depletion from April-September. Sometimesextreme wet stagesmightoccur in summer as a result of intensiveprecipitationrecharge (y. 2010) • In particularyears, as a result of variableprecipitation and evapotranspiration, propagation of droughtmighthavedifferentduration. Symptoms of droughtmightappear in winter half of the year.

  18. ThankYou !

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