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NOTE: To print these slides in black on white, choose grayscale under Options in print preview. MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-2015. NATIONAL TRENDS MISSISSIPPI TRENDS EMPLOYMENT INDUSTRIES STATE BUDGET. National Economy in 2010. Recent profits, equipment spending strong

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  1. NOTE: To print these slides in black on white, choose grayscale under Options in print preview.

  2. MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-2015 • NATIONAL TRENDS • MISSISSIPPI TRENDS • EMPLOYMENT • INDUSTRIES • STATE BUDGET

  3. National Economy in 2010 • Recent profits, equipment spending strong • Private sector jobs being added • Inflation not a problem; oil prices moderate • Exports growing • Stimulus spending slowing • Consumer, business spending tentative • Employment growth slow • Housing not yet on upswing • Toxic assets remain on financial books

  4. Mississippi Economy in 2010 • Housing, financial bubbles less severe • Job loss slowing, retail sales improving • Tax revenues stabilizing • Major projects boost spending • Some of $2.8 billion stimulus to MS remains • Uncertainties, unemployment impacting consumers • Construction, manufacturing hit hard • Tax revenues low relative to state budget • Long-term challenges on hold

  5. MS Employment: Comparing Periods of Contraction Months From Peak Employment: Zero is the Peak Employment is indexed to month of Peak Employment Level

  6. Mississippi versus U.S. Employment Index Quarterly Data Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

  7. Mississippi Employment GrowthAs of July ,Year-to-Date Versus 2009 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

  8. Mississippi Employment GrowthJuly 2009 versus July 2010 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

  9. Unemployment Rates, Mississippi Urban Areas Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  10. Gulf Coast Employment July 2010 versus August 2005 Source: Data from MS Dept of Employment Security.

  11. MS Regains 2000 Employment Level In 2015 Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, I.H.S. Global Insight.

  12. Employment By Sector 2010, MS vs. U.S.(Percent) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  13. Construction Employment, Coast and Rest of Mississippi, 2005-10

  14. MS And US Housing Market % Change 2007:Q2 – 2009:Q2

  15. Mississippi Housing Market % Change 2009:Q1 – 2010:Q1

  16. Value of Housing Building Permits Mississippi, Aug. 2008 - July 2010

  17. Foreclosures and Past Due Payments Mississippi Housing Market Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

  18. Major New Projects Port at Gulfport $570 million Schulz Extruded Products $300 million Enterprise for Innovative Geospatial Solutions $279 million Twin Creeks Technologies $175 million Toyota Auto Plant $1.3 billion LNG Project $1.1 billion Severstal Expansion $500 million Keesler Air Force Project $950 million Source: Mississippi Authority Development

  19. Mississippi Retail SalesAugust 2008 to July 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

  20. Transfers to General Fund August 2008 to August 2010 Source: Mississippi Department of Revenue.

  21. Growth in General Fund TransfersFY2009 versus FY2010

  22. Growth in State General Fund Transfers( August 2009 versus August 2010) SOURCE: MS Dept of Revenue.

  23. FY2011 • GROSS STATE PRODUCT $93.1 billion • MISSISSIPPI BUDGET $19.1 billion Federal Funds $9.3 b. State-Source Spec. Funds $5.4 b. State General Fund $4.4 b. Source: MS Dept of Finance & Admin.

  24. Economic Forecast 2009 to 2010(Percent Change)

  25. Economic Forecast 2010 to 2011(Percent Change)

  26. Projected and Past Employment Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

  27. Projected and Past Output Growth MS and US Source: MS Center for Policy Research & Planning, Global Insight.

  28. Employment Forecast by Sector (average annual rate of change) Source: MS Center for Policy Research and Planning.

  29. WILL THIS CRISIS BE AN OPPORTUNITY LOST? • Financial Sector: Transparency & Accountability • Restructuring: Health, Energy • Social Safety Net • State Budget: Performance-Based Budgeting, Policymaking Capacity, Tax Reform

  30. EDUCATION AND THE SKILL GAP • 29%of persons in U.S. from 25 to 64 years old have a bachelor’s degree or higher • Only 20%of persons from 25 to 64 years old in Mississippi have a bachelor’s degree or higher SOURCE: U.S. Census and U.S. Monthly Labor Review, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2007.

  31. SOURCE: PUMS Dataset, 2000 Census. Fighting Poverty: Education and More Required

  32. IN SUMMARY • Starting climb from bottom • Jobs, state revenues stabilizing • US, world growth will be a positive • Major projects on-line • Long-term challenges remain • Ability to innovate, compete • Education, research • State budget, health, energy, social issues

  33. MISSISSIPPI ECONOMIC REVIEW& OUTLOOKandMISSISSIPPI’S BUSINESS at www.mississippi.edu/URC Join MS Economy Listserve: contact mhill@mississippi.edu University Research Center

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