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Population

Population. Chapter 2. World Population Centers -- Today. World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html. Population by Continent. Density Measures. Thing on top – Area on bottom Arithmetic D = Pop/Area Limited value Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area

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Population

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  1. Population Chapter 2

  2. World Population Centers -- Today Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  3. World Population http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  4. Population by Continent Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  5. Density Measures • Thing on top – Area on bottom • Arithmetic D = Pop/Area • Limited value • Physiological D = Pop/Arable Area • Pre-Industrial indicator of Carrying Capacity of the land • Agricultural D = Farmers/Arable Area • Indicator of Economic Development Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  6. Here size is related to pop not area. Population Cartogram Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  7. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  8. Today • Investigate the Demographic Transition Model • Investigate Types of Diagrams used to display and map Demographics • As you are going through these materials be sure you are also reading your textbook Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  9. 1. DEFINING GENERAL TERMS AND CONCEPTS Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  10. Basic Terms Crude Birth Rate Crude Death Rate Rate of Natural Increase Doubling Time Infant Mortality Rate Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  11. Crude Birth Rate CBR • Number of live births per year = 3,180 • Divided by population = 200,000 • Times 1,000 CBR = [(3,180)/200,000] x 1,000 CBR = 15.9 births per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  12. Crude Birth Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  13. USA Crude Birth Rate 2015 Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  14. Crude Death Rate CDR • Number of deaths per year = 1,860 • Divided by population = 200,000 • Times 1,000 CDR = [(1,860)/200,000] x 1,000 CDR = 9.3 deaths per 1,000 people Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  15. Crude Death Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  16. Rate of Natural Increase RNI • CBR = 15.9 • Minus CDR = 9.3 • Divided by 10 RNI = (CBR – CDR)/10 = [(15.9 -9.3) /10 = 0.66% growth per year Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  17. Rate of Natural Increase Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  18. Doubling Time Basically how many years to double a population based on the Rate of Natural Increase http://www.metamorphosisalpha.com/ias/population.php Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  19. Infant Mortality Rate IM • number of newborns dying under 0ne year of age = 25 • divided by the number of live births during same year = 3,180 • Times 1,000 IM = (25/3,180) x 1,000 IM = 7.9 deaths per 1,000 births Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  20. Where do you think the USA Falls on this list? Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  21. Infant Mortality Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  22. Fertility Rate • Average Number of child births Per woman • Since a couple is 2 people, need a little more than 2 births to replace the parents • 2.1 is considered a stable growth fertility rate in the USA or a Developed Country Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  23. USA Fertility Rate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  24. Fertility Rate Great Web Interactive web site http://www.geoba.se/population.php?pc=world&type=010&year=2049&st=rank&asde=&page=1 Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  25. Next: Types of Diagrams • Demographic Transition Model • Population Pyramid • Trend Diagrams • Temporal (over time) • Spatial (over space • Survivorship Diagram Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  26. 2.DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  27. Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. Simplified Version Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  28. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL: Traditional Diagram Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  29. Another way of displaying including the Rate of Natural Increase Curve for changing Rate of Natural Increase during the Demographic Transition Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  30. What is the Demographic Transition Model? • The "Demographic Transition" is a model that describes population change over time. • Our main concern has been growth • Now in Industrial Countries it is in decline Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  31. What is the Demographic Transition Model? • “It  is based on an interpretation begun in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson, of the observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the past two hundred years or so.” Jerome D. Fellmann, 2013 Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  32. What is the Demographic Transition Model? • The "Demographic Transition" is a model/ a scientific hypothesis • Until the 1990s it seemed to work well with Developed Countries • It worked pretty well with Less Developed Countries Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  33. What is the Demographic Transition Model? • The "Demographic Transition" is based on the Scientific Method, • so we are continually “experimenting” with it and improving it • Here we will critique it with Italy & Japan • But first look at Impacts and Consequences Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  34. Four Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing Growth 4. Low Growth Some now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Which is the case in Europe and Japan Factors That Change over the Stages Family Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates Family Economics Status of Kids Gender Roles Health Conditions Child Deaths Population Size Impacts and ConsequencesThe next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  35. Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  36. Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  37. Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  38. Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  39. Thought Exercise Sources http://www.marathon.uwc.edu/geography/demotrans/demtran.htm For the next two diagrams determine the years for the start of Stage 2, 3 and 4 as appropriate Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  40. Developed Country Example: Sweden Note that reality is a bit messier than theory. Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  41. Developing Country Example: Mexico This looks more like what we are expecting Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  42. Combination emphasizing changes over time, Sweden takes longer and Sweden starts from lower CBR and CDR Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  43. 3. TYPES OF DIAGRAMS Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  44. More Types of Diagrams • These diagrams help us to understand the mechanism causing the Demographic Transition Model to operate and its impact • Survivorship Diagram • Stabilization Ratio Diagram • Population Pyramids • Temporal Trends • Spatial Trends Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  45. Survivorship Diagram: Emphasis on longer life expectancy as CDR drops Now 90% live past 55yrs old Less then 10% reached 25yrs old Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  46. Public Health: One of the many past causes of high child mortality rates Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  47. Recent Exponential Growth of World’s Population as countries enter Stage 2 and Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  48. Total Population of the World by Decade, 1950–2050 • http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762181.html (historical and projected) The good news – Growth rate is in decline The bad news – we will try to add another 2.5 bill. Mainly another Billion people in Africa Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  49. Stabilization of World’s population is still over a generation away But Geographically it will be more concentrated Chap 2 Population Envs 204

  50. Population Pyramids Chap 2 Population Envs 204

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