WP4 “Integration to European global/regional forecasting capacity”

1. WP4“Integration to European global/regional forecasting capacity” P.Bahurel - Mercator Ocean ECOOP Consensus Meeting Erdemli, 16-17 March 2005

2. WP4: Motivation • set up an integrated strategy between “open ocean” and “coastal” operational oceanography : show it is feasible, and worth doing • ensure full connection and integration of the regional/coastal seas forecasting capacity considered in ECOOP to the global/regional capacity, existing or developed under GMES projects such as MERSEA

3. WP4: Objectives • demonstrate – both on scientific and operational sides – our capacity to ensure full downscaling from open ocean to shelf/coastal areas, • build through practical examples reference areas of successful coupling between global/regional operational forecasting systems and regional/coastal forecasting systems • show how coastal application fields (coastal pollution, HAB monitoring, etc) could benefit from an efficient connection between these different systems.

4. WP4: Main Deliverables • Practical and successful examples of implementation of the MERSEA / ECOOP joint vision for Integrated Coastal Oceanography • For the Users (to raise / develop interest in “our” operational oceanography) • For the Supporting Agencies (for further projects) • Well assessed methodologies and tools to ensure downscaling / coupling between open sea and coastal systems • For development teams (for further developments)

5. WP4: Approach/Strategy • put Application needs first : Algae Bloom, Oil Spill, Sea Level • not considered if not connected to • select a limited number of areas, where global ocean meets european shelf and coastal seas • see criteria next slide • start from pre-existing systems and improve through integration : integration of systems, integration of Research inputs • 2-way connection with e.g. WP10 • run end-to-end experiments, starting from the open ocean information to reach coastal practical applications and end-users (e.g. HAB alert), with involvement of coastal models, local observations, downscaling tools ; show sustainable examples • Involve operational agencies

6. WP4: Criteria for the selection of Pilot Areas ECOOP Pilot Areas are: • on coastal areas, but influenced by the open ocean (downscaling required) • with a pre-existing effort • already covered by a long series of observations • already covered by a first version of a coastal monitoring and forecasting system (with at least a modelling capacity) • of interest for targetted coastal applications (at least one) • oil drift, sea level, algae bloom, ... • with a first version of the application tool ready

7. EuroGOOS regions Regional OOS MERSEA areas NOOS - North West shelf MERSEA NW Shelves BOOS –Baltic MERSEA Baltic open ocean & shelf Black Sea GOOS opened on deep ocean MedGOOS – MOON MERSEA Med Sea IBIS EuroGOOS MERSEA Global

8. WP4: Targeted areas (tbd) IBIS EuroGOOS region (Atlantic shelves) • Areas • South: Iberian Shelf • East: Gulf of Biscay • North: South Irish Shelf • Application • Oil Spill (post-Prestige effort, ...) • Algae bloom (HABIT consortium, ...) • Sea Level (met agencies, ...)

9. Irish shelf 3 2 Bay of Biscay 1 Iberian Shelf Algae Bloom Oil Spill Sea Level IBIS EuroGOOS MERSEA Global

10. ExampleArea: « Iberian shelf » • Partners: Puertos del Estado, ICM, MeteoGalicia, IEO, IST, Univ. de Vigo, Météo-France, AZTI, IPIMAR, Hydromod • Existing effort: Coastal Circulation model : MOHID model + assimilation; operational observations ; WQ + oil modules • Downscaling: Coupling with Mercator & ESEOO open sea systems • Applications : • HAB (biochemical lead : IST ; K. mikimotoi, dynophisis lead: IEO) • Oil Spill Drift, including Prestige area (lead : Puertos) • Storm surge (lead: Puertos) • Downscaling to bays • Bilbao bay : model TRIMODENA, coupling, ecoogical model (lead: AZTI) • Ria de Vigo, Baixas : HAB (Dynophisis,Gymnodium Catenatum). Modelisation : MOHID, monitoring HAB in the ria. Leader : Univ. Vigo • Tage estuary : MOHID model + assimilation ; coupling Mercator/ESEOO ; HAB ; Sea Level ; Oil Spill (lead IPIMAR).

11. Bay of Biscay  HAB Examples Iberian shelf  Oil spill Galician shelf  HAB Bilbao Harbour  Water pollution • Tagus • Storm surge, HAB

12. Development needed: • Regional system: • Regional model in physical sense (includes Gibraltar) • Tides • Shelf/slope interaction • … Coupling : • adaptation of coupling tools Coastal systems : • Diminution of layer thickness • Turbulence parametrisation • Assimilation • … MERSEA global / Regional system :Atlantic front coupling Iberian coastal system Biscay Coastal system Irish shelf • PAN-European (format, database, availability): • To be used by the downscaling/application system : • Bathymetry • River fluxes • Atm. Forcings • Data base (obs. + satellite) • … To be fed by the dowscaling/application system: • Data files from regional system • Coupling tools • Data files from coastal systems (model + obs.) • Data files from local systems (model + obs.) Obs. Obs. Obs. Pollution/accident: Oil spill Water quality :HAB Water quality : HAB coupling Bilbao coupling coupling Obs. Water quality : harbour Rias de Vigo Iroise coupling Obs. Obs. Tagus Safety at sea: Storm surge Water quality : HAB Obs. Water quality : HAB Pollution: Oil Spill Safety at sea: Storm surge

13. WP4 Core activities • Define and run operational Test cases for application experiments (algae blooms, oil spill, sea level) in the selected areas • Prepared to use different versions of the « MERSEA-ECOOP » systems • Organize and improve integration of pre-existing systems and build up the « MERSEA-ECOOP » system in the selected areas • Strenghten the connection between systems, following ECOOP inputs • Conduct a specific work on downscaling/coupling (application of advanced methods, considered in more details in WP10) ; envisage different scenarios (inline/online ; permanent or not ; unstructured grids vs trad. coupling ; …) • Assess then our capacity to get from the MERSEA system the information requested by ECOOP application end-users • Assess impact on targeted applications of the different scenarios ; lessons for sustainability of the MERSEA-ECOOP offer ; lessons for exportation in other areas

14. WP4: Issues • Number of areas to consider • Is WP4 the only place where « pilot areas » are considered ? • Are WP4 criteria considered here OK ? • Consider other regions • Level of « Research » activity in WP4 • e.g. downscaling activity with WP10 • Connection with users