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ISO New England HQICC Recommendation for Power Year 2005/2006

ISO New England HQICC Recommendation for Power Year 2005/2006. Peter Wong, ISO New England NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting March 2, 2005. BACKGROUND.

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ISO New England HQICC Recommendation for Power Year 2005/2006

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  1. ISO New England HQICC Recommendation for Power Year 2005/2006 Peter Wong, ISO New England NEPOOL Reliability Committee Meeting March 2, 2005

  2. BACKGROUND • In addressing a protest of the 2005/2006 HQICC values filed with the FERC, the FERC on December 13, 2004 directed that ISO-NE attempt to secure additional data regarding HQ system conditions and that NEPOOL and ISO-NE reconsider 2005/2006 HQICC values in light of an analysis of that data • In response to this FERC Order, ISO-NE obtained forecasted monthly load and capacity data for the 2005/2006 Power Year from Hydro-Quebec Distribution (HQD) and Hydro-Quebec Production (HQP) in January 2005. ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  3. Background • ISO New England used a deterministic approach to calculate the Monthly Capacity Potentially Available for Sales (MCPAS) and the corresponding monthly HQICC levels. This approach is consistent with the Commission’s ruling in the “Fourth HQICC Docket” (2003/2004). • This approach assesses the availability of generating capacity from Quebec that can be accessed through the HQ Interconnection and does not reflect the need by New England for the potential emergency assistance. ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  4. Background (Continued) • The deterministic approach used a set of load and resource assumptions that describe the expected system conditions in Quebec. ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  5. Calculation Formula The approach uses the following formula to calculate the amount of Monthly Capacity Potential Available for Sales (MCPAS), which is used to develop monthly HQICC: MCPAS = the monthly HQ Installed Capacity minus the monthly (Scheduled Generation Maintenance + Estimated Generation Forced Outages + Net of ICAP Purchases and Sales + Forecasted Load + Operating Reserve Requirement). ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  6. Data and Calculation Process • To calculate MCPAS, ISO-NE used the “high load” forecast from HQD and assumed that the winter peak load could occur in any of the winter months of December, January and February. ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  7. Reasons for using the High Load Forecast • Winter cold spells in the Northeast US and Canada occur at the same time, so it is prudent to use, for New England winter HQICC levels, figures reflecting a high demand scenario for HQ, because that will not overstate the amount of available generation when each region needs it most. It will also reflect an appropriate protection of HQ reliability. • Use of the high load forecast is consistent with the methodology submitted by ISO-NE and NEPOOL on June 16, 2003 and accepted by the Commission in the August 15, 2003 FERC Order ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  8. ISO-NE HQICC Recommendation • Based on the results of the calculation, ISO New England is recommending, for NEPOOL consideration, the HQICC values for the 2005/2006 Power Year as shown in the table on the next slide. • In essence, ISO-NE is proposing that the HQICC values for the months of December, 2005, January, February and March 2006 be changed. • The ISO proposal has been presented to the NEPOOL Power Supply Planning Committee (PSPC) for their comment and recommendation. Most of the PSPC members noted that they can support the values filed at the FERC or the ISO recommended changes. The PSPC was not able to make a recommendation. ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  9. ISO-NE HQICC Recommendation ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

  10. Questions? ISO NEW ENGLAND |The people behind New England’s power

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