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Expected impact of Climate Change on flooding in the Dender Basin.

Expected impact of Climate Change on flooding in the Dender Basin. Results MSc thesis: Adaptive measures to reduce climate change impacts on flood probabilities. Niels Van Steenbergen & Jeroen Verbelen. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin. 3 climate scenarios CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool

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Expected impact of Climate Change on flooding in the Dender Basin.

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  1. Expected impact of Climate Change on flooding in the Dender Basin. Results MSc thesis: Adaptive measures to reduce climate change impacts on flood probabilities. Niels Van Steenbergen & Jeroen Verbelen

  2. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • 3 climate scenarios • CCI-HYDR Perturbation Tool • Perturbation factors • Composite hydrograms (T= 5, 10, 25, 100, 250)

  3. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Conceptual model • Linear reservoir • Calculation time 10² s • Simplification • Calibration • Measures • Hydrodyn. model • Saint Venant • Calculation time 104 s • Accurate • Detailed

  4. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Conceptual model of the upstream Dender basin

  5. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Floodmapping of conceptual model • Method of fictive floodbranches • Floodbranch in the lowest point • Water height as boundary of the floodbranch • Extrapolation of water height in polygon HW d H (DEM) Hw

  6. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Simulation results (climate scenarios: red = low, orange = mean, green = high, blue = normal) (T=10)

  7. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Simulation results (climate scenarios: red = low, orange = mean, green = high, blue = normal) (T=10)

  8. Expected impact of CC in Dender Basin • Simulation results (climate scenarios: red = low, orange = mean, green = high, blue = normal) (T=10)

  9. Adaptation scenarios considered and the expected impact on flooding in the Dender basin. Results MSc thesis: Adaptive measures to reduce climate change impacts on flood probabilities. Niels Van Steenbergen & Jeroen Verbelen

  10. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Adaptation scenarios • Baseline scenario = Situation before the flood 2002-2003 • Scenario 1 = dikes built in 2003 • Scenario 2 = scenario 1 + adapted weirs • Scenario 3 = scenario 2 + flood control reservoirs • Marke + Molenbeek Zandbergen • Spatially concentrated • Assumption on filling and emptying

  11. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Scenario 1: dikes • T = 25 year • Climate Scenario = Mean • Blue = Baseline • Red = Scenario 1

  12. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Scenario 2: weirs • T = 25 year • Climate Scenario = Mean • Red + Green = Scenario 1 • Green = Scenario 2

  13. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Scenario 3: flood control reservoir • T = 25 year • Climate Scenario = Mean • Green + Orange = Scenario 2 • Orange = Scenario 3

  14. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Other inundation parameters • Water rise rate • Water velocity in floodplains • Historical events

  15. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Other inundation parameters • Rise rate (1995)

  16. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Other inundation parameters • Water velocity in floodplains (2002-2003) • Criterion : < 2 m/s

  17. Adaptation Scenarios in Dender Basin • Conclusions • Calculation time • Measures • Dikes: most positive influence, but can cause problems upstream • Weirs: positive influence, but can cause problems downstream • Flood control reservoirs: small influence, but most desirable measure • Improvement of efficiency • Other possible measure: • Lowering dikes in non-built area’s

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