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June 2004 First Korea-UK Future Mobile Symposium The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow

June 2004 First Korea-UK Future Mobile Symposium The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow Dr Walter Tuttlebee Executive Director, Mobile VCE. Talk Structure. Setting the Scene for Today’s Talks Some history – so you can understand something of how the UK’s role has evolved in this industry

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June 2004 First Korea-UK Future Mobile Symposium The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow

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  1. June 2004 First Korea-UK Future Mobile Symposium The Mobile Industry: Today & Tomorrow Dr Walter Tuttlebee Executive Director, Mobile VCE

  2. Talk Structure • Setting the Scene for Today’s Talks • Some history – so you can understand something of how the UK’s role has evolved in this industry • Where we are today – so you can appreciate the thinking of UK industry players and government • The future – some personal perspectives, from a position at the heart of global industry R&D, on future evolution and Mobile VCE’s role in this • Later talks will focus on specific technology factors and topics – this will be an overview

  3. Some History: ‘Before 3G’ • GSM • Origins – CEPT 1982 • Targets - 1985 • Competing Technical Proposals in Europe • Europe is NOT one country, unlike the USA ! • The UK role – ‘The Honest Broker’ ! • Base Standards – completed 1989/90 • Mandated Spectrum & Technology (Europe) • UK’s 1800 MHz initiative – ‘Phones on the Move’ • Infrastructure Deployed – 1991 • Handsets Available – 1992 • Success Apparent – 1995 • Globalisation – 1998 • GSM will still be around for many, many years !

  4. Some History: 3G • 3G • Origins – ‘RACE Mobile’ 1988 • Targets - 1992 • Early 3G research was commercialised pre-3G • GSM1800, diversity, microcells, etc • Base Standards – 1997/98 • ITU - A “Family” of Standards • Infrastructure Deployed – Japan 2001/2, Europe 2003/4 • (Decent) Handsets Available – 2003/4 • Success Emerging – 2004 ?

  5. Mobile Communications in the UK Today • Mobile Users • Subscribers: UK – 52m, Europe – 450m • Penetration: UK - 87%, W Europe - 84%, E Europe - 29% • Importance of the Industry to the Economy • 2.3% of UK GDP • 0.6% of UK Jobs • Mobile Operators • 5 network operators including 1 pure-play 3G (‘3’) • MVNOs • Notably BT & Virgin, (upgrading to GPRS & 3G) • Leading Global Mobile Operators • Vodafone, Orange (both board members of Mobile VCE)

  6. Transition from 2G to 3G • Europe – poorly managed preparation for 3G • Late advent of polyphonic phones, colour screens • Mismanagement of user perceptions of WAP, esp UK • Market was ill prepared • Benefiting from the Downturn • Opportunity for the market to catch up • Operator rollout of 3G-type services using 2.5G • Colour screens, polyphonic phones • Cameraphones • Portals (Vodafone Live!) • Current Initiatives • Music player • Digital TV – DVB-H • BT & Vodafone (fixed-mobile) • BT & GWR (mobile-broadcast)

  7. 3G Today in Europe • Country markets • Pioneer markets 2003 – UK, Italy – 3 • Sweden, Denmark – 3 • Germany,The Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden – Vodafone • UK 77% Population Coverage • June 2004 >1m subscribers • Strong growth since Jan 2004 • New handsets key to subscriber growth • 10-20% of net adds in 1st qtr • Including the LG U8100

  8. 3G Today in Europe • Pioneer Markets - the UK & Italy - ‘3’ • Same problems with initial take-up as DoCoMo’s FOMA in Japan, no decent handsets initially available • Problems exacerbated by need for GSM dual mode • Aggressive voice tariffs, built on lower cost-per-bit • Subscribers by 1st April 2004: UK 377,000, Italy 469,000 • Vodafone – pan-European launch spring 2004 • Initial focus on business, data, users – 3G/GPRS datacard • Targets high value early adopters • Consumer phones – Samsung Z105, Sony-Ericsson Z1010 • Orange, T-Mobile – European launch later 2004

  9. Regulation & R&D • Regulation – Ofcom – a new regulator • Unified regulation of communications & broadcasting • >50% digital broadcast penetration • Forward looking • Light touch approach • Spectrum trading • R&D • Most global industry players have R&D centres in the UK • Strong Industry-Academic R&D infrastructure • Mobile VCE - long-term, industry-led, research, established 1996, top UK universities – initially as a UK initiative but now global industry members & influence • Focus on long-term industry-led research

  10. Mobile VCE Industry Futures Vision Day – January 2004 • Who & What ? • Futures – Europe, US, Asia Views • Mobile VCE companies from around the world – inc Korea • Industry Directions • Technology Implications • Where do our industry members want Mobile VCE’s own future research to focus … ?

  11. The Future: 4G or ‘Beyond Generations ?’ • Origins – 1997 • Mobile VCE’s ‘Vision 2010’ • Published in the IEE Electronics & Communications Engineering Journal, December 2000 • WSI, led to the formation of WWRF • WWRF helped focus the agenda for 6FP • Market Shifts • Developing Markets: Volume – China & India • Developed Markets: Compelling Applications • Industry Shifts • Closer Look @ RoI • Core Markets & New Opportunities • Technology Cost Base

  12. The Future: 4G or ‘Beyond Generations ?’ • Technology Shifts • ‘New’ 3G Air Interfaces – WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, etc • Short Range – Personal Environments, Passive Services • Ubiquitous Networking, RFID Integration, M2M • Adaptive Radio & Networks • Regulatory Shifts • Technology Neutrality • but operators want standards…cf Vodafone @ FTMC • Unlicensed Spectrum • Ultrawideband … ? • Spectrum Trading – 2006 ? • Is the industry moving ‘Beyond Generations’ ? • Are we seeing a new kind of evolution emerge ?

  13. The Future: we need an ‘Industry-Efficient’ Evolution Path • GSM – Latent Market DemandApproach Driven by Politics • 1992 Single European Act • Mandated European Spectrum & Technology • 3G – A Period of Strong Market Growth Approach Driven by Globalisation • Harmonised Global Spectrum, but … • ‘Family of Standards’ → trend to Technology Neutrality • The Future - What are the real Drivers ? What is shaping the Approach ? • Technology still a Key Enabler – but Industry must steer • Content, applications & services will drive new business models – ‘passive’ services, inter-networked applications • Common standards…but how can these fit into a technology-neutral, spectrum-market world ? • How to find an industry-efficient evolution path ? • Key technologies to enable this, and why ?

  14. This week, and today, we seek to explore such issues together… • Session Themes • New & Emerging Wireless Technologies • Higher throughput, lower cost-per-bit • Network Technologies in an All-IP World • Towards IPv6 and an inter-networked world • Securing Mobile Services • What new approaches are required to security • Content, Services & Applications • New business models • How should these drive technology research ? • Spectrum – the ‘air’ of mobile comms • Regulatory change & challenges

  15. Thank you… For further information please contact: Dr Walter Tuttlebee E-mail: walter.tuttlebee@mobilevce.com Tel: +44 1256 338604 WWW: www.mobilevce.com

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