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Demonstrating Reasonable Progress Protocol – Key Points Synthesis - 4/18 State Presentations

This presentation summarizes the key points and synthesis of progress made in the implementation of the State Presentations Implementation Workgroup's Demonstrating Reasonable Progress Protocol. It focuses on the modeling of fire and dust emissions using the CMAQ and CAMx models, as well as the PSAT Source Apportionment tool. The results show the suitability of these models for estimating changes in emissions over time and predicting the impact on visibility. The presentation also highlights the existing state programs and control measures in place to address visibility impairment.

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Demonstrating Reasonable Progress Protocol – Key Points Synthesis - 4/18 State Presentations

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  1. Demonstrating Reasonable Progress Protocol – Key Points Synthesis - 4/18 State Presentations Implementation Workgroup April 19, 2007

  2. Fire Emissions Dust emissions – same kind of picture

  3. CMAQ modeling • Model tested extensively for performance against monitoring data • Absolute modeling values not suitable for planning • Performance tests indicate that model is good for estimating change over time, i.e., 2002 vs. 2018 emissions • Coarse mass not simulated well, will hold constant 2000-04 to 2018

  4. SOx/NOx CAMx PSAT Source Apportionment • Emissions grouped into anthropogenic and natural categories of SOx and NOx sources to allow: • Relative contribution of source categories, and • the effect of changes in emissions • Predicts mass change for sulfate and nitrate • Data do not lend themselves to conversion to light extinction • Performance tests indicate that PSAT results are good for estimating change over time for source categories with greatest confidence in emissions, i.e., 2002 vs. 2018

  5. Site Year dv|Base dv|Inc Method N Deciview|NIA GICL1 2000 13.11 GICL1 2001 13.11 NIA 12.09 GICL1 2002 13.11 NIA 14.24 GICL1 2003 13.11 NIA 14.12 GICL1 2004 13.11 13.11 NIA 12 GICL1 2008 12.68 GICL1 2013 12.15 GICL1 2018 11.61 GICL1 2023 11.08 GICL1 2028 10.54 GICL1 2033 10.01 GICL1 2038 9.47 GICL1 2043 8.94 GICL1 2048 8.40 GICL1 2053 7.87 GICL1 2058 7.34 GICL1 2064 6.69 RHR approach to glide path Year-to-year variation smoothed out with 5-year average, single emissions/met data year of 2002 • Emissions projections aim for single year, not an average of 5 future years • 2018 RPG becomes “no worse than” cap, to be verified with monitoring data

  6. Species parts of RHR deciview glide path • Small source-by-source incremental changes in SOx and NOx will produce little regional haze effect at western Class I areas • Predicted improvements in nitrate from fed mobile rules and sulfate/nitrate from CAIR in eastern U.S. have been the results of huge (>50% reductions in sources)

  7. Likely actual western glide path

  8. State programs are already managing emissions • BART in process • Title V permits (approved/delegated by EPA) • PSD/NSR (that other visibility protection program) • Smoke management • Reasonable controls and control programs are in place for meaningful sources contributing to visibility impairment

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