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Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by-play data

Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by-play data. William Knapp and Dr. Jason A. Osborne, Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics, N.C. State University. Introduction. What is BSP? Which teams have the best BSP? Effect of sacrifice bunts and stolen bases

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Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by-play data

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  1. Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP):an analysis using play-by-play data William Knapp and Dr. Jason A. Osborne, Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics, N.C. State University

  2. Introduction • What is BSP? • Which teams have the best BSP? • Effect of sacrifice bunts and stolen bases • BSP as a predictor for runs scored and wins • Methodology • Linear and logistic regression • Correlation

  3. Data Acquisition • Web-scraping and parsing with R and Java • R functions: readLines() and regexp() • Java: sort into arrays and change certain variables to binary

  4. Analysis: Sacrifice and SB effects • Multiple Logistic Regression model • , , and are effects for SB attempt, SAC Bunt attempt, and outs. is a team effect.

  5. Analysis: MLR on Runs and Wins • +++ • Coefficients of determination (), with

  6. BSP vs Winning Percentage • Scatter of all 30 teams over all 16 years • Individual teams to show trends • Houston needs some work

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