Complexity Research; Why and How

1. Complexity Research; Why and How Sorin SolomonRacah Institute of Physics HUJ Israel Director, Complex Multi-Agent Systems Division, ISI TurinDirector, Lagrange Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Excellence In Complexity

2. Contents • Complexity as an unifying Scientific Paradigm • Complexity as Theoretical Applied Science • How to promote and evaluate Complexity and High Risk / High Stakes Research

3. Complexity as an unifying Scientific Paradigm

4. (Physics Nobel Laureate) Phil Anderson defined in 1972 COMPLEXITY=MORE IS DIFFERENT He meant that When there are MOREthen one simple agent(e.g. molecule) those agents may self-organize in collectiveobjects(e.g. cells) which have emergentbehavior (e.g. life) that IS DIFFERENT from the behaviorof the simple agent(e.g. chemical reactions)

5. “MORE IS DIFFERENT” Complex Systems Paradigm MICRO - the relevant elementary agents INTER - their basic, simple interactions MACRO - the emerging collective objects traders orders, transactions herds,crashes,booms Decision making, psychology Financial economics statistical mechanics, physicsmath, game theory, info • Intrinsically (3x) interdisciplinary: • MICRO belongs to one science • MACRO to another science • Mechanisms: a third science

6. Simplest Example of a “More is Different” Transition Extrapolation? ? 1cm The breaking of macroscopic linear extrapolation 1Kg 1Kg 101 97 99 Water level vs. temperature 1cm 1Kg 950C BOILING PHASE TRANSITIONMore is different: a single molecule does not boil at 100C0

7. Example of “MORE IS DIFFERENT” transition in Finance: Instead of Water Level: -economic index(Dow-Jones etc…) 97 99 101 95 Crash = result of collective behavior of individual traders

8. Semiotics and Ontology Social Science Biology MACRO More is different MICRO BusinessAdministration Complexity ICT Drops,Bubbles Atoms,Molecules Economics and Finance Brain Science Meaning Cells,life Social groups Words people Chemicals Markets WWW Customers E-pages Anderson abstractization Herds, Crashes Cognition, perception Traders Neurons Statistical Mechanics Phase Transition

9. Economy, Culture Social groups, • The “MORE IS DIFFERENT” transition often marks the conceptual boundariesbetween disciplines. • It helps to bridge them by addressing Within a common conceptual frameworkthe fundamental problemsof one of them in terms of the collective phenomena of another. Thoughts brain neurons Ion channels Chemicals

10. MORE IS DIFFERENT is a new universal grammar with new interrogative forms allowing to express novel questions of a kind un-uttered until now • We need to foster a new generation of bi- or multi-lingual scientists with this grammar as their mother-language. • We need to recognize MORE IS DIFFERENT interdisciplinary expertise as a crucial tool for future research on equal footing with disciplinary professional expertise. • develop, reward and support Complexity approach as such.

11. “MORE IS DIFFERENT” Agent-Based Complexity Research is a fusion of knowledgerather then merely a juxtaposition of expertises - implies a coordinated shift in the - objectives, - scope and - ethosof the involved disciplines (including healing academic vs. technology / industry dichotomy) Sometimes this caused opposition from some leaders of the affected disciplines which felt that the identity of their science is threatenedby this fusion and shift in scope. => To avoid conflict in the future, complexity should be given space and support on its own right rather then sending it to beg or steal from the established disciplines.

12. Complexity as Theoretical Applied science

13. Complexity Induces a New relation Theoretical Science  Real Life Applications:Traditional Applied Scienceappliedhardware devices (results ofexperimental science)to material / physical reality. Modern Complexity rather appliestheoretical methods- new (self-)organization concepts and - (self-)adaptation emergence theories to real life, but not necessarily material / physical items: - social and economic change, - individual and collective creativity, - the information flow in life Applications of Complexity are thus of a new brand: "Theoretical AppliedScience"and should be recognized as such when evaluating their expected practical impact

14. EXAMPLE of Theoretical Applied Science GNP Education 88 89 90 91 92 THEOREM (RG, RW) one of the fundamental laws of complexity APPLICATION: Liberalization Experiment Poland Economy after 1989 MACRO decay 1990 MACRO decay(90) +MICRO growth 1991 MICRO growth(91) ___________________ => MACRO growth 1992MACRO growth (92) Complexity prediction Global analysis prediction Maps Andrzej Nowak’s group (Warsaw U.), CO3 collaboration

15. How to promote complexity and High Risk Research

16. How toPromote Interdisciplinary / High Risk Research? • establish an European Center for Interdisciplinary Researchit could be distributed and / or itinerant (like CNRS) - Main Task: to host “instant” “disposable” instituteson emerging interdisciplinary / high risk/ high stakes issues • The members of the “disposable institutes”will hold Tenure-Track European Interdisciplinary Chairsindependent on the fate of the disposable institutesThus ECIR will “insure”/“cover” their risk taking • The tenure-track can end in tenured (ECIR) European InterdisciplinaryProfessorships • Researchers will be selected / promoted at ECIR on the basis of their provenexpertise to carry out interdisciplinary research as such.

17. Instruments of the European Center for Interdisciplinary Research - gradual, according to how ripe is the recipient subject • triangle: 2 advisors+ bridge PhD student (100K €)(support summer schools for meeting, visits, fellowship) • 6-12 month interdisciplinary institute programs (500 K€)(buy sabbaticals for professors + bring students) c) 3-5 year “disposable” institutes (3-5 M€)university hosting it, should be well compensated and could keep the institute after the 3 years.participants: local people + students + visitors+ holders of the - European Interdisciplinary tenure(-track) chairs toprovideexpertise with interdisciplinary projects

18. Objective Algorithm to Evaluate Interdisciplinary researchers relevance Subjects that need synthesis Discipline 2 - give priority to people with high interdisciplinarity rather then high rank / disciplinary authority - map theinterdisciplinary cooperation network(- people are nodes - cooperations andcommon papers, are links). Discipline3 Discipline 1

19. Evaluating interdisciplinary proposals In emergent research situations beyond the known frontiers it is not clear what knowledge will be relevant next. Thus strong professional expertise in a strictly limited area is less important than the generic capability / know-how to conduct research in situations of uncertainty and in unchartered trans-/ extra- disciplinary territory Thus the judges should consider the overall- interdisciplinary - expertise - scientific connections and - past achievements- ease innavigating within dynamic research networks rather then - individualdisciplinary authorityand position - ease in managing static large disciplinary research groups

20. If you wish to recall just 3 words of the talk:“instant” “disposable” institutes