Lecture 13: American Unilateralism & the Bush Doctrines ssssss

1. Lecture 13: American Unilateralism & the Bush Doctrinesssssss 5th March 2003 (Wednesday) Session T1 this week: Room 2303

2. Revision: Unilateralism and Multilateralism • Multilateralism • A state idea to push for proliferation of different powers of the world, together with the roughly equal importance of the multi-poles • e.g. Anti-Terror Coalition • Unilateralism • A state idea to push for dominance of one power of the world, as well as its ability to act against other states • e.g. The Bush Doctrine

3. Structure of Lecture 13: • American Unilateralism Before 911 • Bush Doctrine: Basic (Sept 2001) • American Unilateralism after 911 • Formation of the Axis of Evil • Bush Doctrine: Turbo (June 2002) • The Pre-emptive Doctrine • Conclusion: Reassessing the Iraqi Crisis

4. PART IAmerican Unilateralism Before 911

5. 2000: The Greatest Division of American Foreign Policy • Bill Clinton: The Policy of Reconciliation • Presidential Election of 2000: the greatest policy change of America by a presidential election since Franklin Roosevelt (1932) • George W bush before 911: A Representative of • Simple and Naïve Cowboys • Arrogant but Afraid-to-die Eagles • Model of Bush: the Second Reagan Administration (1985-8)

6. Bush’s “Cow-boyism” Before 911 • Rejection of Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (for the National Missile Defense System, NMDS/ Star War II) • Opposition to United Nations’ Strengthening of Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention • Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change • … http://unfccc.int/resource/process/components/response/respkp.html

7. Retreat from Clintonistic Dialogues • Declined Palestine’s Arafat’s Visit; Increased intimacy with Israel’s Sharon • Stopped official contact with North Korea • Spy Plane Crushing Incident with China

8. Theory of Hegemonic Stability • Existence of a “World Hegemony” will help maintaining the global security and stability • Especially if the Hegemony is a “Benign Hegemony” • e.g. UK before WWI?; USA after WWII? • Political and Economic Concepts • Immanuel Wallerstein: the Modern World-System(1974) • Stephen Krasner: Structural Conflict (1985)

9. Statement of the Conservatives • “Multipolarity, yes, when there is no alternative. BUT NOT WHEN THERE IS. • “Not when we have the unique imbalance of power that we enjoy today—and that has given the international system a stability and essential tranquility it had not know for at least a century.” – Charles Krauthammer, Conservative Columnist, June 2001

10. PART IIBush Doctrine: The Basic (Sept 2001)

11. The Good Vs the Evil • “Those states that harbor terrorists should be treated in the same ways as terrorists.” • “You are either with us or with the terrorists.” • “Everyone must take side.” – George W Bush, September 20, 2001 VS

12. Objectives of Bush Doctrine • Objective: Eradication of Terrorist Havens • Targets: Afghanistan and its potential sponsors (Pakistan, KSA, UAE, Russia) • Main Achievements: • Terrified most nations of the world • Confirmed the American hegemonic status • Legitimized its invasion of Afghanistan

13. Main Critiques against the Bush Doctrine • The “Most Direct Extortion in Modern History” • Comparison with Hitler of Nazi Germany • “Must take side”: • The Case of Switzerland • Disallowance of International Variance • Still in Compliance to the Rules of International Order

14. Bush Doctrine Vs Its Replacement: The “Sinatra Doctrine” • “Sinatra Doctrine” • Frank Sinatra: My Way • Soviet Leader Gorbachev (Gorbachev Doctrine) • Eastern European satellites should walk “their ways” in terms of reforms and diplomacy • Seconded by Ronald Reagan • Bush Doctrine: • You can’t walk “your way”!

15. PART III American Unilateralism After 911

16. Unilateralism in the War • “Self-defense” against Taliban • Vs United Nations Authorization on the War on Terrorism • Guantanamo Bay Scandal • refer to Lecture 9 • Admission of Totalitarian Members in the Anti-Terror Coalition (Uzbekistan, Pakistan…)

17. Unilateralism Outside the War (I) • North Atlantic TREATY Organization (NATO) • Backslash of Sponsoring the Russia Admission into NATO • Initial Support of Britain & USA • After 911: realized the “uselessness” of Russia in the World Stage • NATO Membership: “19+1” not = 20

18. Unilateralism Outside the War (II) • Winter Olympic Games at Salt Lake City (Feb 2002) • First large-scaled function hosted in the USA after 911 • Soldiers carried the American Flag from the World Trade Center at the Opening Ceremony • How about an Afghan Flag from Kabul Caves?

19. Formation of the Axis of Evil (30th January 2002) • The Only Involuntary Alliance in Modern History • Historic Origin: • The Axis (Rome-Berlin-Tokyo, WWII) • The “Evil Empire” (USSR, by Ronald Reagan) • Criteria to join the Axis of Evil: • Totalitarianism • Anti-Americanism • Feasible Targets • PR Value!

20. The Three Evil Members • Iraq: • The Saddam Hussein Secular Dictatorship • Iran: • The Ayatollah Khamenei Religious Dictatorship • North Korea: • The Kim Jong-Il Communist Dictatorship

21. The Three Outer Members of the Axis of Evil (6th May 2002) • Supplementing the “Careless Mistakes” • Libya: • The Gaddafi Terrorist Dictatorship • Cuba: • The Castro Communist Dictatorship • Syria: • The Assad Family Dictatorship

22. Missing Members? • China: • Jiang Zemin’s Quasi-Communist-Nationalist Dictatorship? • Russia: • Pukin’s Chauvinistic Dictatorship?

23. Assigned Readings • Main Text: • Michael Byers: “Terror and the Future of International Law” (B&D P.118-127) • Supplementary Text: • Immanuel Wallerstein: “Mr. Bush’s War on Terrorism – How Certain is the Outcome?” (B&D P.95-100).

24. PART IV Bush Doctrine: Turbo (June 2002)

25. Pre-emptive Doctrine • “Our security will require all Americans to be forward-looking and resolute, to be ready for pre-emptive action when necessary to defend our liberty and to defend our lives.” – George W Bush, June 2002

26. Objectives and Targets • Implications: • Your registration of “with us/with them” is no longer important • Evidence is no longer important • What matters is whether I say you are “with us” or “with them” • American suspect  Potential danger in the future  needed to be contained by “Pre-emptive actions”  Eradication of the Members of the Axis of Evil • Creating a New international order! • American by-pass of United Nations in the Iraqi Crisis

27. Origins of “Bush Turbo” (I) • Classic Chinese War Tactic of Sun-tzu: Pre-emptivism (先發制人) • Robert Cooper (Advisor of Tony Blair): Post-Modern State and the World Order (2000) • “Rogue States” should be punished pre-emptively, regardless of the international law • NATO Intervention on the Kosovo Conflict

28. Origins of “Bush Turbo” (II) Failure of Deterrence • Deterrence: • Cold War Doctrine for the Bipolar World • One superpower deters the attack of another superpower, by developing sophisticated weapons • Threats DETERRED by threats of huge casualties • Pre-emptive Doctrine: • America’s super-power capability failed to “deter” the Terrorists • Thus, these threats could not be “deterred” should be “pre-empted”

29. Typology of States in Bush Doctrine, Turbo • Type A: Democratic States (USA) • Type B: Transitional States (Third World; China?) • Type C: Rogue States (Iraq) to be pre-empted! • Type D: Failure States (Somalia)

30. PART V Conclusion –Reassessing the Iraqi Crisis

31. The American Logic to Attack Iraq • Iraq is a member of the Axis of Evil, because it is suspected by Bush of possessing Mass Destructive Weapons (MDW) •  “Evidence” still debatable •  America is preparing to “pre-empt” the Iraqi threat •  By using its own MDW against the Iraqi People

32. Against the Logic of Everyday Life? • Against Fundamental Western Legal Principle: • Suspect without Evidence = Guilty • Vs Suspect without Evidence = Innocent • Basic Rule of International Relations • Basic Rule of Everyday Life • Can Saddam Hussein Have His “Saddam Doctrine,” His Own Pre-emptivism?

33. ~~The End~~ Thank you for attending