Introduction of CCCR-IITM R. Krishnan Centre for Climate Change Research

1. Introduction of CCCR-IITM R. Krishnan Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

2. Objectives • Harness the strengths in science to better understand global and regional climate change with particular focus on the South Asian monsoon • Understand impacts of global warming on planetary scale phenomena like monsoons and El Niño • Understand the nature of biogeochemical interactions and their response to climate change • Create and update information reservoirs for better assessment of climatic changes and their impacts • Identify and explore new areas of research that will contribute to the fundamental understanding of theEarth’s climate system • Build linkages with national and international research groups to optimally leverage scientific capabilities for climate change research

3. Modeling Program Observational Program Objectives • To build a Global EarthSystem Model to address • the Attribution & Projection of regional climate • change – (Long-term) • To develop regional climate change scenarios over South Asia using High-resolution Regional Climate Models ; quantify uncertainties for providing reliable inputs for impact assessments. Contribute to IPCC AR5 – (Short-term) • To understand Past Changes in Monsoon Climate using Multiple Proxy Records. Reconstruction of monsoon indices going back to a few thousand years • Co-ordinate the MoES flux network program to • measure GHG flux variations across diverse • ecosystems and vegetation types over India • To promote Outreach and Training for Capacity Building in Climate Change Research and Dissemination of Information

4. Increase in Surface Temperature Observations Predictions with Anthropogenic/Natural forcings Predictions with Natural forcings 1.0º C Attribution: Are increases in greenhouse gases responsible for global warming? IPCC 2007

5. Primary synoptic and smaller-scale circulation features that affect cloudiness and precipitation in Summer monsoon region. Locations of June to September rainfall exceeding 100 cm over the land West of 100oE associated with the southwest monsoon are indicated (Rao, 1981). Those over water areas and east of 100oE are omitted.

6. Challenges in assessment of future changes in South Asian monsoon rainfall Source: Kripalani et al. 2010 • Wide variations and uncertainties among the IPCC AR4 models in capturing the mean monsoon rainfall over South Asia (eg., Kripalani et al. 2007, Annamalai et al. 2007). • Realism of present-day climate simulation is an essential requirement for reliable assessment of future changes in monsoon

7. Questions : On Attribution? How much of the observed variability of the mean Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall due to Climate Change? How much of the observed increase in temperature over India been decreased by increasing presence of aerosols? Questions : On Projections of Monsoon • What will happen to the monsoon hydrological cycle 50-100 years from now under different scenarios? In particular, will the quantum of seasonal mean rainfall increase or decrease and if so by how much? • What is the uncertainty in these projections? Can we quantify this uncertainty? • How can we reduce this uncertainty?

8. Strategy on Regional Climate Change Research at IITMCentre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) • To build capacity in the country in high resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling to address issues on Attribution and Projection of regional Climate Change • Earth System Model (ESM) • To provide reliable input for Impact Assessment studies • Dynamic downscaling of regional monsoon climate using high resolution models; quantification of uncertainties • Observational monitoring: Network with other Institutions

9. Roadmap towards Earth System Model (ESM) development Start with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model with realistic mean climate Fidelity in capturing the global and monsoon climate Realistic representation of monsoon interannual variability Features of ocean-atmosphere coupled interactions Same modeling framework for seasonal monsoon prediction … Include components of the ESM Biogeochemistry Module (Terrestrial and Marine) Aerosol and Chemistry Transport Module …

10. Basic framework for global climate modeling NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS-2) T126L64 • The NCEP CFS Components • Atmospheric GFS (Global Forecast System) model • – T126 ~ 110 km; vertical: 64 sigma – pressure hybrid levels • – Model top 0.2 mb • – Simplified Arakawa-Schubert convection (Pan) • – Non-local PBL (Pan & Hong) • – SW radiation (Chou, modifications by Y. Hou) • – Prognostic cloud water (Moorthi, Hou & Zhao) • – LW radiation (GFDL, AER in operational wx model) • - Land surface processes (Noah land model) • Interactive Ocean: GFDL MOM4 (Modular Ocean Model, ver.4) • – 0.5 deg poleward of 10oN and 10oS; and 0.25 deg near equator (10oS – 10oN) • – 40 levels • – Interactive sea-ice

11. PRITHVI (High Performance Computing System) , IITM, Pune • Configuration of PRITHVI, HPC at IITM: • IBM P6 575 nodes totaling 117 numbers including the 2 nodes for GPFS quorum and one Login node. Each node is populated with 32 cores of IBM P 6 CPU running at 4.7 G Hz. Total of 3744 cores with Peak Performance of 70 Tflops. • High end Servers P570’s, P550’s, 20 Visual Workstations. • Interconnectivity using Infiniband Switches and Ethernet  switches for Management purposes • Total of 3 Peta Bytes of Storage including Online, Near-line and Archival Storage • GPFS, Tivoli and other Management Softwares

12. CFSv2 precipitation (JJAS): 100-yr mean TRMM precipitation (JJAS): 10-yr mean CMAP precipitation (JJAS): 30-yr mean CFSv1 precipitation (JJAS): 100-yr mean CFSv2 runs from CCCR on PRITHVI

13. Results from the CFS2 validation runs cold bias

14. CFS2 Bias • (Model minus Obs)‏ • Sea Surface Temperatures • (Annual Mean)‏ Preethi et al. (2013): Under preparation

15. CFS2 Bias • (Model minus Obs)‏ • Precipitation • (Annual Mean)‏

16. Basic structure of ESM • Include ESM components in the CFS-2 coupled ocean-atmosphere model • Incorporation of Ocean Biogeochemistry Component (MOM4P1) - Completed • Incorporation of Aerosol Transport Module - Partially completed and ongoing

17. Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR), IITM, Pune Research Highlights Earth System Model (ESM) development: . The first version of the Earth System Model (ESM 1.0) has been successfully developed at CCCR-IITM by incorporating a Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem component known as TOPAZ (Tracers of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton, GFDL, Princeton) in the CFS global coupled GCM at IITM. The ESM development activity is a significant progress in climate modeling towards understanding the global and regional climate response to bio-geochemical processes & the mechanisms that control the ocean carbon cycle Detailed testing and validation of ESM1.0 is in progress Team: Swapna, Roxy, Aparna, Ketan, Ashok, Krishnan

18. Preliminary results from a 36-yr run of the CFSv2 and ESM1.0 starting from Dec 2009 IC The ESM 1.0 run shows significant improvement of reduction of cold SST bias The CFSv2 run shows a systematic SST cooling bias (blue line) during the model spin up Global Mean Monthly Temperature (oC) Months Global Mean Annual Temperature (oC) ESM CFSv2 Year

19. Comparison of ESM and CFSv2 simulations ~ 80 years free run from 2010 onward Air temp (2 m) SST Tropical SST Tropical SST Ht cont Courtesy: Swapna, CCCR

20. Annual mean SST difference (Model minus WOA) ESM1.0 CFSv2

21. Zonal mean annual mean temperature Courtesy: Swapna, CCCR

22. Precipitation (mm day-1): JJAS mean CFSv2 ESM1.0 TRMM

23. Leading pattern of SST variability in the tropical Pacific from EOF/PC analysis Observations (HadiSST) ESM1.0 CFSv2 Courtesy: Swapna, CCCR

24. Wavelet power spectra of Nino3 SST Observations (HadiSST) ENSO PDO ESM 1.0 ENSO PDO CFSv2 ENSO

25. Precipitation • (10N-30N; 70E-100E)‏ • Indian (land +Ocean) Courtesy: Preethi, CCCR

26. Lag/lead correlation between ISMR and Nino3 SST Courtesy: Preethi, CCCR Nino3 SST

27. Incorporation of Aerosol Transport Module in CFSv2 IITM ESM Framework superstructure Max Planck Institute MPI-ESM Gridded components Coupler components MPI-OM ECHAM6 Distinct features OASIS Coupler • GFS & ECHAM have different grid structure • Parallelization & redistribution scheme differ • submodels are not standalone - derives time, date, memory structure from ECHAM • HAM variables are grouped in streams for calculations and for outputs • ECHAM handles HAM outputs SUBMODELS HAM, MOZ ,.. GFS MoM4 Initialization 5 Species: sulfate, seasalt, black-carbon, organic matter & dust Emission inventory • initialize atmosphere • read emissions • register submodels • allocate memory • read aerosol emission Initialization • initialize atmosphere • read spectral fields • tracers frozen (=3) • read surface files Run Aerosol transport, dry & wet deposition/ sedimentation Nucleation, condensation, coagulation and thermodynamics extinction cross section, single scattering albedo, asymmetry parameter • read boundary cond • physics calculations • diffusion • cloud & surface calc • diagnostics Run • Clim. aerosol • radiation call restarts restarts output output Earth System Modeling Framework infrastructure Team: Ayantika, Jayant, Ramesh, Ingo Kirchner, Krishnan, Ashok

28. WCRP CORDEX South Asia – led by CCCR, IITM Co-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX South Asia South Asia • Better understand regional climate processes and improve climate models • Develop reliable high-resolution regional climate change scenarios globally, thereby contributing to the IPCC AR5 and to the climate community beyond the AR5 • Evaluate regional climate model performance through a set of experiments aiming at producing regional climate projections • Quantify and understand the uncertainties in regional climate projections • Develop regional capacity for assessment of regional climate change with higher level of confidence of model-based projections and judgment of regional experts • Link climate modeling better with regional impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessment • Integrate the regional downscaling activities, facilitate cross-fertilization of scientific expertise and engage the community of regional scientists for further capacity building in the region

29. Paleoclimate research Approach 1. Palaeoclimate reconstruction along N-S and E-W transact. 2. Proxies: - Tree-ring - Speleothems - Corals Courtesy: Hemant Borgaonkar

30. W. Himalaya Srinagar Tibet Simla Nepal New Delhi Bhopal Central India Peninsular India B’lore Th’puram Tree-Ring Network over India

31. Dendro-climatic StudiesHighlights Longest tree-ring chronology of Cedrus deodara from Gangotri (A.D. 1450-2003; 554 Years) Higher growth in recent years observed in high altitude near glacier tree-ring chronologies of western Himalaya associated with increasing temperature trend. • Longest tree-ring chronology of Tectona • grandis (Teak) from Kerala (AD 1481 -2003 • 523 Years). • Teak tree-ring chronologies from central • & south India indicate positive relationship • with monsoon and annual rainfall and PDSI • suggests the important role of moisture in • tree growth climate relationship. • Tree-ring Drought Records of Indian • Monsoon rainfall since past five centuries.

32. Reconstructed Observed Reconstructed Extreme pre-monsoon years prior to A.D.1879 over western Himalaya 1691, 1717, 1721, 1729, 1738, 1749, 1759, 1769, 1782, 1815, 1830, 1839, 1847, 1850, 1851, 1860 The strong relationship between extreme pre-monsoon climate and pointer years (narrow rings) might have been held good for past several centuries. About 16 regional pointer years were observed prior to A.D 1879., which would most probably be due to the extreme pre-monsoon summer. Such long proxy records of extreme climate information would be important to understand the long term climate change in the context of recent warming scenario.

33. Fluxnet Project: quantifying the ecosystem fluxes Mahabaleswar: Flux tower measurement over a forest canopy representatives of Western Ghats to quantify forest atmosphere exchange of CO2, water vapor and energy. Kaziranga National Park Soil plant atmosphere study in relation to net CO2 flux from terrestrial ecosystem of Assam Darjeeling: Study of biosphere-atmosphere exchange of GHG in a tropical high altitude forest canopy at Eastern Himalaya (Darjeeling, W.B.) Lakshwadeep: Study on flux of GHG governed by bio-physical processes in the Lakshadweep Island. Pichavaram: Studies on green house gas fluxes in Pichavaram Mangrove ecosystem. Port Blair: Studies of carbon sequestration off Port Blair and surrounding group of islands, Andamans. Courtesy: SupriyoChakraborty

34. Darjeeling, W.B Kaziranga National Park Assam Pichavaram mangrove ecosystem Mahabaleswar, Maharashtra Lakshadweep Island Port Blair Andaman Islands

35. CO2 and GHG monitoring and inverse modeling for source / sink estimation Sinhagad observational site Source: Yogesh Tiwari, CCCR, IITM

36. CO2 and GHG monitoring and inverse modeling for source / sink estimation Figure : Measured concentrations of CO2 (top) in air samples collected at CRI (symbol) along with fitted curve to the data points using a digital filter (black line). Smoothed fits to the Mauna Loa (blue line) and SEY data (red line) obtained by CSIRO and ESRL programs respectively, are shown for comparisons. Comparisons of inter-seasonal and inter-annual variability in CO2 (bottom) at CRI site Current Science, 2009 Source: Yogesh Tiwari, CCCR, IITM

37. CO2 (ppm) CO2, Sinhagad (SNG) – Mauna Loa (MLO) Running mean smoothing using adjacent averaging 9-points

38. Ongoing and near-future plans • Basic research and developmental work (ie., publications, ESM, CORDEX, Fluxnet etc) • ESM2.0: Complete incorporation of aerosol transport module in CFSv2 -- Timeline 1 yr • CORDEX Data Portal: Archival, management, sharing , distribution and publication of CORDEX data from multiple models – Time line 1 year • Paleoclimate studies: • Expand the Indian tree-ring data network by using tree-ring data from South and Southeast Asia viz., Nepal, Myanmar, Thailand, Indonesia, etc to develop large-scale proxy climate for Monsoon Asia • Reconstruct monsoon rainfall variations covering more than 20000 years from Speleothem records • Precipitation isotope analysis across the east-west transect across the Western Ghats to identify moisture sources during the monsoon and estimation of recycled moisture over the region • Characterize amount effect in precipitation of different places in India • MoES GHG fluxnet program: Complete procurement of equipments, instruments and sensors. Setting up of fluxnet towers and GHG measurement system at six locations of India. Link fluxnet activity and background CO2 concentration measurements from Sinhagad together with climate model experiments to estimate sources and sinks; validate model estimates with fluxnet data • Macroscale hydrological modeling: Assessment of hydrological impacts of climate change on river basins of India and quantification of uncertainties - based on macroscale hydrological model simulations driven by regional climate projections

39. Thank you