The Use and Impact of Social Media: Tunisian Elections 2014

1. The Use and Impact of Social Media:Tunisian Elections 2014 Andrea Kavanaugh Virginia Tech with Hamida Skandrani University of Manouba, Tunisia and Steven D. Sheetz and Edward A. Fox Liuqing Li and Islam Harb Virginia Tech UNAMUNAMUN University of Manouba, Tunisia

2. Media Use and Gratification • People use different media for different purposes (gratifications) • Entertainment • Social interaction • Information seeking • During crises, information seeking is often primary purpose • Reliable information difficult to obtain in authoritarian states • Information seeking gratification obtained from which sources? • With what effects on political efficacy and engagement? • Higher political information efficacy->greater political engagement

3. Methods: Survey and Twitter Data • Opportunity Sample of Students: U of Tunis, U of Manouba • Survey (online and print): Round 1: February 2013 (N=183, response rate 65%) Round 2: November 2013 (N=130, response rate 38%) Round 3: February 2015 (N=156, response rate 47%) • Survey Data Analysis (SPSS): descriptive statistics, correlations, factor analysis, and regression analysis • Twitter Data: Extraction of Election tweets: 307,000 Analyses: LDA, Topic Modeling, Visualization

4. Questionnaire: Survey Constructs • Media Use: Information Sources and Frequency of Use • Information Reliability • Information Sharing Behavior with Family and Friends • Political Information Efficacy • Demographics

5. Use of Information Sources during 2011 Uprising • Young, educated Tunisians perceived the Internet and social media to be more reliable than national broadcast media sources for political information • Internet news, Facebook, YouTube (plus Al-Jazeera TV) • Political information may have diffused broadly despite low penetration of social media because young Tunisians regularly shared political information obtained online with friends and family. • High contact society, large youth population, youth use Internet more • Use of reliable media and information sharing predicts higher political information efficacy -– the belief a person holds that they are politically well-informed and knowledgeable. • Changes in Use of Information Sources for Tunisian Elections 2014?

6. Tunisia: Elections 2014 • New Constitution: January 2014 • First regular Presidential elections and Parliamentary elections Oct-Dec 2014 • Founding leader of secularist Nidaa Tounes Party, Beji Caid Essebsi, won in second round election for president, against Mohamed Moncef Marzouki, former Tunisian President 2011-2014, moderate Islamist Ennahda Party. • Secular Nidaa Tounes Party also won plurality of seats in Parliament. • Since 2011 Revolution: Greater press freedoms and new communication channels

7. Tunisia: Media Landscape 2010-2015 • Cell Phone penetration: >100% • Internet penetration: Rose to 48.5% (2015) • 43.8% (2013) • 36.8%(2010) • Facebook penetration: Rose to 85% (2015) • 33.9% (2013) • 17.6% (2010) • Twitter penetration: Less than 1% (0.34%) 2015 • Similar in 2010 (0.3%)

8. Use of Info Sources: Revolution vs Elections

9. TV Stations Watched Most Often: 2011 Uprising vs. 2014 Elections

10. Mean Reliability of Information Sources: 2011 Revolution vs. 2014 Elections

11. Significant Differences in Source Reliability • Paired-samples t-tests comparing differences in reliability of sources: • During revolution: F2F, FB, video-sharing sites, and Internet news sites are all perceived as significantly more reliable than government sources, newspapers and radio. • During elections: (F2F more reliable than all others); FB, video-sharing sites, and Internet news sites are not significantly more reliable than government sources. • Substantial shift in the perceptions of the reliability of government sources for information during 2014 elections.

12. Information Sharing Behavior • Sharing with friends and family the political information respondents obtained from Internet and social media: • “I regularly shared information about the uprising that I obtained from the Internet (including Facebook, YouTube or Twitter) with other family members and friends” (77.9%, 64%) • “Other family members and friends regularly shared information with me about the uprising that they obtained from the Internet (including Facebook, YouTube or Twitter)” (81%, 72%)

13. Information Sharing and Political Info Efficacy • Sharing information obtained online with family and friends about both the revolution and the elections was significantly correlated with PIE. (r = .331, p = 014) • Receiving political information from family and friends during both the revolution and the elections was significantly correlated with PIE. (r = .325, p = .017)

14. Internet and FB Use Predict PIE During both the revolution and the elections, frequency of Internet use and FB use are the strongest media use predictors of political information efficacy adj. R Sq = .25, p < .05 (revolution) adj. R Sq = .19, p < .01 (elections)

15. Twitter Topic 1: Media, Reporting, Updates

16. Twitter Topic 2: Candidates, Essebsi, Marzouki

17. Twitter: Topic 3: Al-Nahda Movement and Party

18. Twitter: Topic 4: Football, Africa Cup

19. Conclusions Important shift in media use 2011-2015: TV channels: From Al Jazeera to Tunisian national private TV Government Sources: increased reliability for elections Internet/Social Media: less important by 2014 Elections Internet and FB use and information sharing with social network are strongest predictors of political information efficacy. Increased political information efficacy – known to increase political engagement – bodes well for nascent democracy in Tunisia. Twitter Topic Modeling indicates interest in and expression of politics among users during the 2014 elections.

20. Acknowledgements Collaborators: Donald Shoemaker, John Tedesco, Sunshin Lee, and Mohamed Farag Magdy (Virginia Tech) NSF (III-1319578 and III-1619028)

21. Acknowledgements Collaborators: Donald Shoemaker, Sunshin Lee, Mohamed Magdy Farag (Virginia Tech) Sehl Mellouli (Laval University) NSF (III-1319578 and SES-1111239)