California Greyhound Bus Network

California Greyhound Bus Network LT Catherine Long LT James Koffi

Agenda • Background • Problem/Model Scenario • Network Model • Interdiction • Takeaways/Further Research • Summary/Conclusions • Recommendations

Greyhound Bus Network • Greyhound serves more than 3,800 destinations in North America and employs around 7,800 staff. • Greyhound operated nearly 5.5 billion passenger miles last year. • The U.S. operation, as well as its operating subsidiaries and Greyhound Canada, carried nearly 18 million people.

Greyhound Bus Network • Intercity bus is the safest mode of transportation over cars, trucks, trains, planes and other commercial vehicles, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation • The Greyhound active fleet consists of about 1,775 buses, with an average age of 9.4 years. • One Greyhound bus takes an average of 19 cars off the road, and achieves 170 passenger miles per gallon of fuel.

Real World

Inside New Greyhound Bus • YouTube Video • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_0Gz-Ie8T0&feature=channel&list=UL

Problem • The price of gas is expensive, and routes between stations vary throughout the state • New buses save gas and will keep up with the competition (Mega Bus, etc.) • What is the fastest and most cost effective way to transition 50 new express buses from two major Greyhound stations to other stations around the state of California?

Model Scenario • Model distributes 50 new buses throughout CA • Use GAMS to model the flow of buses to new stations and demonstrate how an “attack,” such as a major earthquake, impacts the network • The “attacks” model the worst case scenario and completely disable edge

Nodes and Arcs • The nodes in model represent stations • The arcs represent routes from one station to another • Route information is from the Greyhound website • Supply nodes are Oakland and Los Angeles

Road Map of California

Network Model T S

Network Model Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Measure of Effectiveness • The measure of effectiveness (MOE) for this model is to minimize the total cost of the flow of buses to their destination cities • Cost = $/gallon x miles per edge • Each city besides the supply cities receives 2 brand new buses

Model Assumptions • Assume all new Greyhound buses get 6.5 miles per gallon • Cost per gallon of diesel is $4.00 • Edge capacities are never exceeded in our model

Greyhound Network Restrictions • Many cities are connected by narrow two way roads which are prohibited for use by Greyhound or any bus/motorhome in CA due to handling issues. • Bus:California Vehicle Code (CVC) Section 233 defines "bus" as: "(a) …any vehicle… …designed, used, or maintained for carrying more than 15 persons including the driver” • This is one of the major limitations to the network.

Operator’s/Attacker’s Problem • The model is run without interdiction to establish a baseline total minimum cost of $3,246.80 • Run the model with increasing attacks to determine network resiliency • GAMS chooses routes that will maximize the total cost after each “attack”

Network Model With 1 Attack Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 12624.40 4 buses unable to reach destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 2 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Cost = 17410.5 6 buses unable to reach destination Riverside Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Analysis • Can model resiliency be improved with an additional supply node in Bakersfield? • Yes, but it only changes the model slightly…

Network Model With 1 Attack Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 12292.10 4 buses unable to reach Oceanside and San Diego Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 2 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 17078.20 4 buses unable to reach Oceanside and San Diego Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 3 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 21728.90 6buses unable to reach destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 4 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 31009.30 12 buses unable to reach destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 7 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 40512.50 16buses unable to reach destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 8 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 40870.60 16 buses unable to destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Operator’s Resilience Curve

Results • The most costly “attacks” occur with the first attack and the fourth attack • Attack #1: 12624.40 - 3,246.80 = $9377.60 • Attack #4: 31341.60 - 22061.20 = $9280.40

Network Model With 1 Attack Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Riverside Cost = 12624.40 Difference 12624.40 - 3,246.80 = 9377.60 4 buses unable to reach destination Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Network Model With 4 Attacks Sacramento Vallejo Santa Rosa Stockton Oakland Modesto San Francisco T Merced Santa Jose Santa Cruz Fresno Los Banos Salinas King City Coalinga Jct Bakersfield San Luis Obispo Indio S Santa Maria Palmdale Victorville Oxnard Cost = 31341.60 Difference = 31341.60 - 22061.20 = 9280.40 12 buses unable to reach destination Riverside Los Angeles Indio Oceanside San Diego

Model Comparison • The additional supply station in Bakersfield decreased overall cost by $1,093.00 after 14 attacks • In the scenario with 3 supply stations Bakersfield started out by supplying just 4 new buses • By the 14th attack, Bakersfield supplies 14 buses • The more supply nodes the better, however may not be cost effective for Greyhound to have so many bus contracts

Future Analysis/Recommendations • Change the probability of destruction based on location, i.e. if on a fault line • Additional routes could be added to local roads and streets that connect the major interstates to build more redundancy in the network, but must abide to California state laws

California Greyhound Bus Network

California Greyhound Bus Network

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