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IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia. Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Political Context. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india.cia.update/india.test.site.lg.jpg. Site of Indian Nuclear Tests in Thar Desert.

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IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

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  1. IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

  2. Outline • 1998 Nuclear Tests • Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs • Political Context

  3. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india.cia.update/india.test.site.lg.jpghttp://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/13/india.cia.update/india.test.site.lg.jpg

  4. Site of Indian Nuclear Tests in Thar Desert http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/469185.stm

  5. Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia • Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 • Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests • Pakistan nuclear tests: May 28 & 30, 1998 • Immediate economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan

  6. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/30/pakistan.nuclear/pakistan.nuclear.test.jpghttp://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/30/pakistan.nuclear/pakistan.nuclear.test.jpg

  7. Site of Pakistani Nuclear Tests at Koh Kambaran mountain http://www.isis-online.org/publications/southasia/paktestsitephotos/panel_testmtn.JPG

  8. Indian Background • Tension with China • 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) • Today: ~80-100 nuclear weapons • Goal: regional stability

  9. Pakistani Background • Nuclear weapons capability by 1989-1990 • Today: ~90-110 nuclear weapons • Goals: overcoming conventional inferiority, keeping regional balance of power

  10. New Pakistani Reactor Construction (2011) <www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2011/02/10/PH2011021002770.html>

  11. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430.stm

  12. Delivery Systems • Strategic missile systems • Fighter plane option http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1732430.stm

  13. Political Context: India • CIA surprise • US inaction • Motives: --Matching China --Hindu nationalism, political needs --Maintaining advantage over Pakistan

  14. Political Context: India (cont.) • Desire for international respect • Resentment of NPT • Initial euphoria, then increasing protests

  15. Anti-Nuclear Protests in India http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/asiapcf/9805/16/india.protests/

  16. Political Context: Pakistan • No real alternative? • Need to satisfy nationalist demands: “We have settled the score” • Oct 1999 coup PM Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Pervez Musharraf http://www.bbc.co.uk/urdu/news/021021_pmln_siqqid_ua.shtml

  17. Nuclear Hopes and Fears • Pakistan Army: better able to negotiate with India? • Fears of radical Islamic elements within Pakistan Army • Fear of nukes falling into terrorist hands

  18. Conclusions? • Greater stability? • Impact of proliferation in South Asia is still unclear

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