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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 December 2019. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights
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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 16 December 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons
Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology
Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of central and the extreme southern Brazil, northern Argentina, southern Bolivia and northern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina and much of northern Peru. • For Days 1-7 (02 – 08 Dec 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of Venezuela, northern and central Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil, northern Paraguay, central Bolivia, southern Colombia and much of Peru.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of central and the extreme southern Brazil, northern Argentina, southern Bolivia and northern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina and much of northern Peru.
Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina, southern Chile, northern Colombia and Venezuela. Above-average precipitation was observed over much of northern Peru, as well as small portions of northern Argentina, southern Brazil and southern Colombia.
BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (~ 150mm), the Brazilian Plateau (~ 150 mm), and the extreme southern Brazil (~ 100mm).
Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across much of the tropical Pacific (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the recent 7-day period, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over northern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over much of northern South America, and anomalous rising motion was observed over much of Argentina and southern Brazil. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.
925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the recent 7-day period, above-average temperature was seen over northern Brazil. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 Dec 2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 16 Dec 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.
NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (02 – 08 Dec 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of Venezuela, northern Brazil, Uruguay, northeastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of southern Brazil, northern Paraguay, central Bolivia, southern Colombia and much of Peru. • For Days 8 -14 (09 - 15 Dec 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern and southern Brazil, southeastern Paraguay and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central Brazil, Bolivia, northern Peru and central Colombia.
ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE
