How Andrew Bartholomew was found: oceanography in action.

1. How Andrew Bartholomew was found:oceanography in action. A status report on the BlueLink Regional Analysis David Griffin

2. Bluelink Regional Analysis: credits • RA staff: Madeleine Cahill, Jeff Dunn, Jim Mansbridge, Chris Rathbone, Ken Ridgway • also: Neil White, Ian Barton, Peter Turner, Glen Smith, Ken Suber, Susan Wijffels, Ann Gronell, Helen Phillips, Peter Campbell • my predecessors:John Wilkin, Scott Condie • BlueLink PI: Andreas Schiller • externals: BoM, RAN, WASTAC, WA DOT, ACRES, MHL, QldEPA, NASA, NOAA, ESA, AOML

3. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island

4. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island • 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown

5. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island • 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown • AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area

6. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island • 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown • AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area • Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift.

7. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island • 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown • AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area • Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift. • The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry?

8. Events of 23-24 October 2004 • Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island • 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown • AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area • Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift. • The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry? • Unfortunately, the details tell a different story

9. AMSA’s SARTRAK screen for 24 Oct

12. How come the search was in the right place? • At the time of the rescue, it was thought • Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket • The current was to the SE

13. How come the search was in the right place? • At the time of the rescue, it was thought • Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket • The current was to the SE • Subsequently, we learnt that • he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds • The current was near zero

14. How come the search was in the right place? • At the time of the rescue, it was thought • Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket • The current was to the SE • Subsequently, we learnt that • he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds • The current was near zero • So it appears we got it right for the wrong reasons

15. Lesson (no surprise, really) • The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem.

16. Lesson (no surprise, really) • The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem. • In this case, the overnight change in the altimetric velocity estimate equalled the rms variability at that point.

17. solutions • Reduce the latency of the analysed map • Needs more altimeters • in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future

18. solutions • Reduce the latency of the analysed map • Needs more altimeters • in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future • Use other types of ocean data • SST observations can be made synoptically • Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion • For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the most promising technology

19. solutions • Reduce the latency of the analysed map • Needs more altimeters • in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future • Use other types of ocean data • SST observations can be made synoptically • Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion • For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the most promising technology • Use physics to turn recent observations into ocean nowcasts (and short-term forecasts) • This is what the rest of Bluelink is all about

20. Let me backup…. • 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying.

21. Let me backup…. • 2003-2004 was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying. • Unless the wide-swath is embarked on Jason-2 in 2008, this data density will not be reached again for many years.

47. Conclusions • With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.

48. Conclusions • With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. • But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side.

49. Conclusions • With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. • But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side. • BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile

50. Conclusions • With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. • But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side. • BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile • The Regional Analysis is an early product of Bluelink that • Gives potential users a taste of what’s to come • Provides a benchmark for the model to beat