1 / 41

Economic outlook for 2012–2014 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 3/2012

Economic outlook for 2012–2014 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 3/2012. Governor Erkki Liikanen. Growth outlook subdued. Finnish economy will grow slowly. Growth dependent on domestic demand. Supply and demand. * At current prices , EUR billion .

edythe
Download Presentation

Economic outlook for 2012–2014 Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 3/2012

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Economic outlook for 2012–2014Euro & talous (Bank of Finland Bulletin) 3/2012 Governor Erkki Liikanen Erkki Liikanen

  2. Growth outlook subdued Erkki Liikanen

  3. Finnish economy will grow slowly Erkki Liikanen

  4. Growth dependent on domestic demand Erkki Liikanen

  5. Supply and demand * At currentprices, EUR billion. The data on 2011 are Statistics Finland’s advance data; more precise National Accounts data will be published on 12 July 2012. Erkki Liikanen

  6. Employment growth comes to a halt Erkki Liikanen

  7. No improvement in employment in immediate years ahead Erkki Liikanen

  8. New jobs in service sectors Erkki Liikanen

  9. Slower productivity growth Erkki Liikanen

  10. Labour costsincreasesubstantially Erkki Liikanen

  11. Household demand fading, exports gradually picking up Erkki Liikanen

  12. Householdsavingsfalling Erkki Liikanen

  13. Investment growing slowly Erkki Liikanen

  14. World trade growth supports exports Erkki Liikanen

  15. Market share of Finnish goods exports contracted sharply Erkki Liikanen

  16. Services exports narrowly based Erkki Liikanen

  17. Current account to remain in deficit Erkki Liikanen

  18. Inflation to gradually slow Erkki Liikanen

  19. Inflation driven by service and food prices Erkki Liikanen

  20. Increases in indirect taxes push up the price level Erkki Liikanen

  21. Fiscal policy tightening will strengthen public finances Erkki Liikanen

  22. General government balance improves Erkki Liikanen

  23. Central government debt ratio stabilizes Erkki Liikanen

  24. Public expenditure share of GDP remains high Erkki Liikanen

  25. Restructuring of the economy and the long-term outlook for growth Erkki Liikanen

  26. Labour productivity is vital to growth Erkki Liikanen

  27. Population ageing and growth of service sectors will slow long-term growth Erkki Liikanen

  28. How can we avoid the imbalances threatening the economy? Erkki Liikanen

  29. Currentaccounthasweakenedduring the lastdecade Erkki Liikanen

  30. Import prices up relative to export prices Erkki Liikanen

  31. Key export sectors declined Erkki Liikanen

  32. Steeprise in Finnishunit labour costs in 2008-9 Erkki Liikanen

  33. Finland Euro area Change between years 2007 and 2011, % 40 30 20 10 0 - 10 - 20 GDP, volume Private consumption, Residential Household loans volume investment, volume Sources: Eurostat and European Central Bank. 26062 Finnish households moved deeper into debt Erkki Liikanen

  34. How the imbalances can be avoided Continued consolidation of public finances Lengthening working careers and other structural reforms to strengthen potential output Controlling the increase in household debt Ensuring cost-competitiveness Erkki Liikanen

  35. Bank of Finland Bulletin Economic Outlook 3/2012 Articles: Assessing the Finnish house price development with various measures-Jarkko Kivistö Market share of Finnish goods exports contracted sharply in the 2000s-Seppo Orjasniemi and Terhi Ravaska The long-term growth forecast for the Finnish economy-Helvi Kinnunen, Petri Mäki-Fränti, Elisa Newby, Seppo Orjasniemi and Jukka Railavo Erkki Liikanen

  36. Thank you! Erkki Liikanen

  37. Alternative scenario: Households strengthen their financial position by adjusting demand Erkki Liikanen

  38. Savings ratio rises to long-run average level Erkki Liikanen

  39. Also a decline in housing investment Erkki Liikanen

  40. Improved financial balance in household sector would weaken growth and public finances Erkki Liikanen

  41. Household indebtedness and interest burden in Finland Erkki Liikanen

More Related