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Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups

Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups. An International Review. James J.F. Forest, Associate Professor University of Massachusetts Lowell James_Forest@uml.edu. Agenda. What do we know about trends in kidnapping by terrorist groups Historical trends Geography Groups Victims

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Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups

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  1. Kidnapping by Terrorist Groups An International Review James J.F. Forest, Associate Professor University of Massachusetts Lowell James_Forest@uml.edu

  2. Agenda • What do we know about trends in kidnapping by terrorist groups • Historical trends • Geography • Groups • Victims • Source: Global Terrorism Database, 1970-2010

  3. Historical Trends

  4. Historical Trends

  5. Historical Trends Proportion of Kidnapping Incidents with Monetary Ransom Demands

  6. Geography

  7. Geography Countries Accounting for the Most “Kidnapping by Terrorist” Incidents per Year

  8. Geography: South America Proportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents

  9. Geography: Middle East Proportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents

  10. Geography: South Asia Proportion of all Incidents and Kidnapping Incidents

  11. Groups Top Ten Groups Responsible for Kidnapping Incidents in the GTD Percent of all kidnapping incidents per year attributed to select groups

  12. Victims Top Nationalities Among Victims of Terror-related Kidnapping Incidents, 1970-2010

  13. Victims Correlations between Incident Country and Nationality of Victim

  14. Summary of Findings • Kidnapping by terrorist groups has increased significantly in recent years; of the 40 years of incidents recorded in the GTD, 25% have occurred in just the past 5 years • Yet, kidnapping by terrorist groups has remained a fairly consistent (and small) proportion of all terrorist attacks each year since 1970; kidnapping has never been more than 11% of all terrorist attacks in a given year. • No terrorist group has shown a preference for kidnapping over other forms of terrorist attacks recorded in the GTD

  15. Summary of Findings • During the 1970s, left-wing groups were responsible for the largest proportion of kidnapping incidents • More of these incidents took place in South America than anywhere else • Within last decade, significant decreases in South America and increases in the Middle East and South Asia. • In 2010, 67% of all terrorist-related kidnappings occurred in just three countries—India, Pakistan and Afghanistan • Muslim extremist groups have collectively replaced left-wing revolutionaries as the world’s leading terrorist kidnappers

  16. Summary of Findings • Terrorist groups prefer kidnapping victims of specific nationalities. • In most cases, X kidnaps mostly X (Indians in India, Colombians in Colombia, etc.) • In a few cases, X kidnaps Y (Chechens kidnap Russians not Chechens; Palestinians kidnap Israelis, not Palestinians) • Most kidnapping incidents have not resulted in outcomes beneficial to the terrorists.

  17. Future Research Questions • Why have only a minority engaged in kidnapping? • Among those terrorist groups which appear to never have kidnapped, are there contextual challenges or self-imposed constraints? • What factors may influence a terrorist group’s decision-making about whether to kidnap? • Differences by ideological categories (e.g., do ethno-nationalists typically avoid kidnapping members of own ethnic group?

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