1 / 6

SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

PETER KREFT, CHIEF FORECASTER. SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities. Some SWFDDP Goals*. * SWFDDP Regional Subproject RA V, Progress Report 7, April 2013. However …. Most NMHSs do not have a formal warning system in place

Download Presentation

SWFDDP – South Pacific: Challenges and Opportunities

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. PETER KREFT, CHIEF FORECASTER SWFDDP – South Pacific:Challenges and Opportunities

  2. Some SWFDDP Goals* * SWFDDP Regional Subproject RA V, Progress Report 7, April 2013

  3. However … • Most NMHSs do not have a formal warning system in place • No objective verification of warnings has been provided to the Lead RSMC (perhaps unsurprising, given the above)* • Very few case studies have been provided to the Lead RSMC • Some NMHSs report no interaction with their corresponding DMCPA • * 1 November 2012 to 28 February 2013: • 1200 South Pacific Guidance charts were produced by RSMC Wellington • 87% of these charts contained one or more of heavy rain / strong wind / large waves

  4. Next steps • Implement in-country warning system • Simplified approach to advising communities about heavy rain, through using alert and warning banners in forecasts and warnings, to be presented at the August RSMT meeting • Implement in-country verification system • Simple verification method was demonstrated during 2012 in-country training but has not been used yet; to be discussed at August RSMT meeting

  5. Resourcing: RSMC Wellington • Operational time: • Current operational time committed to Project is all that is available • No capacity to accommodate “scope creep” • Training: • Cost of the substantial amount of staff time (and reasonable amount of travel) required for in-country training will not be met by in-kind contribution … so, future unclear • IT development: • Resource issues similar to those described above for training • In other words, at the RSMC level the Project depends on an on-going source of funding being secured for development activities

  6. Decision time … ? • What criteria must a Project meet before it is considered “matured” and therefore ready to be transitioned to “fully operational”? • A reasonable time series of verification? • Sufficient case work to build a picture of effectiveness? • Other? • The decision to transition (or not) a project to fully operational status • Is partly scientific, as described above • Is partly business, since it involves determining the resources required (affordability, sustainability), taking into account the long- term scope of the Project • May involve considering other options for delivering the desired outcomes

More Related