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A carbon budget for the planet

A carbon budget for the planet. We need to burn carbon for prosperity, but we wish to limit the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. How do we make the right balance? And– are we picking too much on CO2?. Read for April 23. New York Times Magazine April 11 2010 Building a Green Economy

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A carbon budget for the planet

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  1. A carbon budget for the planet We need to burn carbon for prosperity, but we wish to limit the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. How do we make the right balance? And– are we picking too much on CO2?

  2. Read for April 23 New York Times Magazine April 11 2010 Building a Green Economy Paul Krugman

  3. carbontracker www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker And click on ‘CO2 weather’

  4. Do by ‘wedges’ • There is a widening gap between anticipated CO2 emissions and a desired level of CO2 emissions. • Close this gap with a number of doable steps—wedges. • Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004 • Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, 2006

  5. Result of constant emissions? • Rising CO2 and all that that entails.

  6. Treaty compliance www.iea.org/G8/2008/G8_IEAwork_2008.pdf International Energy Agency, work for the G8, meeting in Japan. Accept the goal of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 at 450 ppmV (now 385) by 2050, with a temp. change of +2 deg C, by limiting emissions to half those of some baseline year.

  7. 1. (12)Look at the array of ‘capacity additions’ • in Figure 5 of the “IEA Work for the G8” • www.iea.org/G8/2008/G8_IEAwork_2008.pdf , • especially the list on the right of the figure, which are • ANNUAL things to build. The plan is to do ALL • of these. Do you think that the world has the resources • and the guts to do this? Our US share of the steps • would be about one fifth, since we emit about one fifth • of the global CO2. Do you think our nation could build one fifth of the stuff listed in this figure? Each year? Starting now?

  8. What must we do, at least about CO2? clicker

  9. To stabilize total CO2,stop the increase- • Decrease CO2 emissions to some previous level, such that the earth can absorb that much. • Pick a level  pick a temperature. • 450 ppm  2 deg C

  10. The CO2 bathtub Water goes into the tub, and water drains out. The drain is a constant. To stop when the tub is full, water in =water out, so adjust the water taps.

  11. Is it just CO2? About 60% of the ‘global temperature driver’ Methane CH4, about 21 x more effective per molecule than CO2 N2O x 310 Black carbon=soot, changes albedo, especially of ice and snow Water vapor

  12. Dihydrogen monoxide The very worst of all greenhouse gases!

  13. Dihydrogen monoxide The very worst of all greenhouse gases! H2O

  14. Feedback-- Changeeffect Effect increases change = positive feedback. Example: CO2warmermore water vapor more heating Effect decreases change = negative feedback. Example: CO2—warmer  more water vapor more clouds  cooling Equilibrium vs. stability

  15. Next week- • Monday – national policies, cap and trade, carbon tax, Waxman-Markey bill • Wednesday- geoengineering, ‘fixing’ our problem • Friday-political and economic issues (read the Krugman article)

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