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Crop Outlook & Marketing Considerations

Crop Outlook & Marketing Considerations. NW Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Sheldon, Iowa Mar. 25, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use.

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Crop Outlook & Marketing Considerations

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  1. Crop Outlook & Marketing Considerations NW Iowa Farm Business Association Annual Meeting Sheldon, Iowa Mar. 25, 2013 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  5. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  7. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  9. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  10. Advance Corn Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  11. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  12. U.S. Blended Gasoline Consumption 7.6 bil. gal. 7.4 bil. gal. Source: DOE-EIA, via USDA-ERS

  13. Current Corn Futures 5.32 5.15 Source: CME Group, 3/22/2013

  14. Current Soybean Futures 12.00 11.75 Source: CME Group, 3/22/2013

  15. Corn Prices vs. Costs

  16. Soy Prices vs. Costs

  17. Total Acreage Shift Source: USDA-NASS

  18. Acreage Shift by State Top: Planted in 2012 Bottom: Change from 2011 Units: 1,000 acres Source: USDA-NASS

  19. Thoughts for 2013 and Beyond • Supply/demand concerns • Soil moisture issues • Biofuel and export strength or lack thereof • Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing • Risk management • Crop insurance • Price protection

  20. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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