First Meeting of the Governance, Peace and Security Statistics: “Harmonisation of GP&SS”

1. Governance, Pease and Security in Africa: The Imperative of both Social Cohesion and Statistics on Social Cohesion François Ndengwe African Advisory Board T: +33(0)6 1339 0107 – amepya2@gmail.com First Meeting of the Governance, Peace and Security Statistics: “Harmonisation of GP&SS” Organized by African Union Commission Nairobi – Kenya, 23 – 25 May 2012

2. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION: The Definition Problem Costs of Social UnCohesion for Africans Demographic Heterogeneity Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa CONCLUSION: Sciences in Public Policy

3. INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem • Why Definition Matters • What is “GOVERNANCE” • Oxford English Dictionary • From oldFrench “Gouvernance” • “The action or manner of governing” • “Controlling, directing, or regulating influence; control, sway, mastery” • “The manner in which something is governed or regulated; method of management, system of regulations” • “Discreet or virtuous behaviour; wise self-command” • African Union, 6th Summit of the Nepad Heads of State & Government Implementation Committee – 9 March 2003 – Abuja, Nigeria, Paragraph 1.8 • “To facilitate the measuring of performance and progress, this document identifies the following components in each of the four substantive areas of the Declaration: • Democracy and political Governance • Economic Governance and Management • Corporate Governance • Socio-Economic Development” • + Environmental Governance (added later)

4. INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem • What is «SOCIAL COHESION » ? • « There is no single accepted definition of social cohesion” (Perspectives on • Global Development 2012 SOCIAL COHESION IN A SHIFTING WORLD, OECD, Nov 2011) • Proposed Definitions of « Social Cohesion » • Oxford English Dictionary • Cohesion: • From French “Cohésion” • «The action or fact of forming a united whole” • “The action or condition of cohering; cleaving or sticking together; spec. the force with which the molecules of a body or substance cleave together” • Club de Madrid (2009) • « Socially cohesive or ‘shared’ societies are stable, safe and just, and are based on the promotion and protection of all human rights, as well as on non-discrimination, • tolerance, respect for diversity, equality of opportunity, solidarity, security and • participation of all people, including disadvantaged and vulnerable groups and persons.” • OECD Definition : The triangle • Social Mobility • Social Inclusion • Social Capital

5. INTRODUCTION- The Definition Problem AAB proposed definition: The SQUARE • «Social Cohesion is the feeling of  « togetherness » based on • trust, • shared values, • progress in harmony, • defense vis-à-vis common threats » P in H Sh. VALUES DEFENSE TRUST

6. I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for Africans • Africans’ SOCIAL UNCOHESION: • One cause of slavery aggression success in Africa • A facilitator of slavery in slavery days - In • Africa (Jean-Charles Sismonde de Sismondi (1773 – 1842), De l’Intérêt de la France à l’égard de la traite des nègres) • “The New World” (Compulsory loss of language, ethnicity, culture, humanity) • An Allied of Europeans in the Berlinisation of Africa - Berlin Conference, 14 European Countries, Nov 1884 – Feb 1885 • A permanent tool of the colonial aggressors in colonialist days • A spike in the hands of Apartheid theorists and practionners • A flame to set on Africans-on-Africans massacres – François Mitterand, Mémoires Interrompues, Paris, Odile Jacob (on Charles De Gaulle and his followers manipulating one group of Africans to kill other Africans) • A spur on dispossession of Africans through “Washington Consensus’s privatization and structural adjustments plans

7. I.- Costs of Social Uncohesion for Africans • No SOCIAL COHESION, No PEACE • No SOCIAL COHESION, No SECURITY • No SOCIAL COHESION, No GOVERNANCE • No SOCIAL COHESION, WARS, even GENOCIDE • No SOCIAL COHESION, No ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • No SOCIAL COHESION, No HUMAN PROGRESS

8. II.- Demographic Heterogeneity: Most Singular Trait (Threat) of African Societies • Why African Demographic Heterogeneity (ADH) Matters • ADH: What Origin ? Why ? What’s Africa’s specificity? What does ADH tells about Africans? • Statistics as a Science to Measure ADH • Unfortunately, • No African Stats Institution measures it or gives it the importance it deserves • Nature abhorring vacuum, trickeries, lies, instinctive drive, take the place of enlightened debate and tolerance • Consequence: • Social Un-Cohesion (Distrust, No shared value, No progress, no harmony, no defense vis-à-vis external aggression) • Tribalism (« Africa: the Continent of Tribalism! ») • Injustice (Distrust of the Judicial System) • Antipatriotism, Permanent insecurity, Wars, Genocide (Rwanda), State breakdown (Sudan/South Sudan, Mali, and who’s next?) • Africa: The only one defenseless continent in the world

9. Two measures of Africa’s high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity 1/ ETHNICITY Ethnic: “Pertaining to nations not Christian or Jewish; Gentile, heathen, pagan * Relating to a population subgroup (within a larger or dominant national or cultural group) with a common national or cultural tradition * Pertaining to or having common racial, cultural, religious, or linguistic characteristics ” (Oxford English Dictionary) • Africa has 3,315 ethnic groups, while • China has 56 ethnic groups, of which the Han ethnic group alone makes up 90% • (Africa is 60 times more heterogeneous than China) • USA has 6 ethnic groups • (Africa is 553 times more heterogeneous than USA) • India, Brazil, Russia, Europe, • The World has 5,000 ethnic groups • (Africa: 64% of world ethnic groups and only 14% of world population) Sources: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009; Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World, Scientific American Magazine, September 1998; http://www.numberof.net/number-of-ethnicities-in-the-world/ ; http://www.ethnologue.com

10. Two measures of Africa’s high and unparalleled Demographic Heterogeneity 1/ ETHNICITY • Doyle, By the Numbers: Ethnic Groups in the World, in Scientific American Magazine, September 1998 • “Many of the world’s problems stem from the fact that it has 5,000 ethnic groups but only 190 countries. • “This situation is illustrated on the map, which shows that few states are ethnically homogeneous and that many, particularly in Africa, have no majority ethnic group. • “Since 1945 some 15 million people have been killed in conflicts involving ethnic violence, although ethnic tensions have not necessarily been the catalyst. • “Among the worst incidents were the 1994 civil war in Rwanda, which resulted in more than a million dead and three million refugees, • “and the 1947 communal riots in India, which left several hundred thousand dead and 12 million refugees” • Post election Violence in Kenya, 2007-2008

11. Two measures of Africa’s high and unparallel Demographic Heterogeneity 2/ LANGUAGE Greenberg Linguistic Diversity Index : “ A measure of the probability that 2 randomly chosen persons in a country have different mother tongue” (2005 edition of Ethnologue) DI, Linguistic Diversity Index of the country Pi, percentage of the total population which comprises the ith language group of the country n, number of the country’s indigenous languages • The highest possible value 1 indicates total diversity (i.e. no two persons have the same mother tongue) • The lowest possible value 0 indicates no diversity at all (i.e. everyone has the same mother tongue).

13. NIL, Number of Indigenous Languages %WL, Percentage of World Language (Total of WL is 6912) DI, Linguistic Diversity Index Source: Investing in Cultural Diversity and Intercultural Dialogue, UNESCO, 2009

16. III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job • Lord KELVIN (William Thomson) (1824 – 1907) • “To measure is to know (…) If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.“ • “I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meagre and unsatisfactory kind; • “it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarcely in your thoughts advanced to the state of Science, whatever the matter may be."[PLA, vol. 1, "Electrical Units of Measurement", 1883-05-03] • Statistics a Science to Enhance Social Cohesion in Africa

17. III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job • MEASURING THE SQUARE • TRUST • SHARE VALUES • PROGRESS IN HARMONY • DEFENSE VIS-À-VIS COMMON THREATS • Are African National Statistics Institutions equip for this measurement? • UNFORTUNATELY NO • No African Stats Institution measures it or gives it the importance it deserves, • Nature abhorring vacuum, trickeries, lies, instinctive drive take the place of enlightened debate and tolerance P in H Sh. VALUES DEFENSE TRUST

18. III.- Measuring Social Cohesion in Africa: The African Statistician Job • WHAT TO DO ? • Vigorous Action is Needed • Rewrite The Focus (and the Rule?) of African NSIs to include “Social Cohesion” • “Social Cohesion” as a Priority of public Policy in Africa • “Social Cohesion” LEADER, CHAMPION, in each government and at the Continental level

19. CONCLUSION • SOCIAL COHESION: Prerequisite and Reinforcer of Governance, Peace and Security in Africa • SCIENCE IN PUBLIC POLICY • WAITING FOR COPERNICUS • What Political System best handle and strengthen “Social Cohesion”, African Demographic Heterogeneity? It’s Not Democracy • What Economic System best handle and strengthen “Social Cohesion”, African Demographic Heterogeneity? It’s Not “Market Economy” or “Washington Consensus” • (List of imported and failing concept: SAP, HIPC, Underdeveloped countries, MENA, …= • MEASURE AND ENLARGE THE SQUARE • THE SQUARE AS A COMPASS For African Public policy and prosperity in the time of a reshaping of global politics and crisis in the currently dominant world • AFRICA MUST UNITE

20. THANK YOU African Advisory Board T: +33(0)6 1339 0107 - amepya2@gmail.com